Looking to remain flat – anyone seeing anything different?
Thanks to a healthy bout of buying from just ahead of the 1.17 neighborhood on Thursday, the EUR ended the day closing back above the H4 mid-level resistance pegged at 1.1750. Traders may have also noticed that the recent bid helped form a nice-looking H4 AB=CD bearish formation that completes around the 1.1785ish range (see black arrows).
Selling this Harmonic pattern may be appealing to some, given that daily price is also seen trading within striking distance of a supply noted at 1.1870-1.1786. Be that as it may, there are a few cautionary points you may want to consider:
1. The EUR has (and still is) entrenched within a strong uptrend.
2. The aforementioned daily supply suffered multiple breaks to the upside last week, thus potentially weakening the zone.
3. A sell on the H4 places you in direct conflict with the 1.1750 line.
4. Weekly price is currently trading above resistance at 1.1759.
Our suggestions: On account of the above points, selling this market is a risk that we’re just not willing to take at the moment.
Although we’re against selling, we’re also not too fond of buying this market either. Buying into an AB=CD completion and a daily supply (despite its condition) is not something our team would label high probability.
Data points to consider: US Inflation figures scheduled for release at 1.30pm, followed closely by FOMC members Kaplan and Kashkari taking the stage at 2.40/4.30pm GMT+1.
Selling this Harmonic pattern may be appealing to some, given that daily price is also seen trading within striking distance of a supply noted at 1.1870-1.1786. Be that as it may, there are a few cautionary points you may want to consider:
1. The EUR has (and still is) entrenched within a strong uptrend.
2. The aforementioned daily supply suffered multiple breaks to the upside last week, thus potentially weakening the zone.
3. A sell on the H4 places you in direct conflict with the 1.1750 line.
4. Weekly price is currently trading above resistance at 1.1759.
Our suggestions: On account of the above points, selling this market is a risk that we’re just not willing to take at the moment.
Although we’re against selling, we’re also not too fond of buying this market either. Buying into an AB=CD completion and a daily supply (despite its condition) is not something our team would label high probability.
Data points to consider: US Inflation figures scheduled for release at 1.30pm, followed closely by FOMC members Kaplan and Kashkari taking the stage at 2.40/4.30pm GMT+1.
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