The bears are awake

Close below 1.21545 would at least eliminate the alternative triangle correction

コメント:

We may label the internal structure differently but it will not alter the overall structure

コメント:

Bearish count

We could expect a 5 waves sequence to complete larger degree wave 1 or A
Green wave (i) ended at 1.2216, close above this level would argue a different wave count

short-term target 1: 1.1992 if green wave (iii) equals to 1.618 times the length of wave (i)
short-term target 2: 1.1827 if blue wave {iii} equals to 1.618 times the length of wave {i}
short-term target 3: end of wave 4 at 1.1554

コメント:

コメント:

2.618 Fib extension at 1.17312

コメント:

コメント:

コメント:

the dollar index says Euro may decline further

コメント:

short-term bear still alive

コメント:

alter count: ending diagonal to complete green wave (v)
red wave 1 circle = blue iii of green (v)
red wave 2 circle = blue iv of green (v)
but we need a swift rally breaking the end of red wave 2 circle first
there is no price evidence to confirm the above count so far

コメント:

コメント:

コメント:

expecting blue wave iv circle correction will end within 38.2% - 50% retracement level

コメント:

blue wave iv circle is still under way

コメント:

grey triangle wave {iv} or blue wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) for {v}

コメント:

the triangle could be the best interpretation so far

コメント:

break above wave (c) high of 1.17908 would invalid the triangle count

コメント:

コメント:

short-term sell set up

コメント:

ready for sell again?

コメント:

it seems wave (e) of {iv} is still unfolding

コメント:

wave (e) could be a double zigzag w-x-y or a-b-c-d-e triangle

コメント:

コメント:

time to secure some profits

コメント:

possible count 1

コメント:

possible count 2

コメント:

another new low is still possible, no need to rush into catch the bottom

コメント:

EURO has broken the red wave (i) low today. it tells us this is not wave (iv) correction, which also suggests the above bullish case is under way.
We can still argue the red (i) to (v) could be only wave (i) of {v} of 1 or A, but i think it's less likely to happen.
A solid close above the end of wave {iv} at 1.1747 would confirm the 5-waves decline sequence since February has ended

コメント:

コメント:

コメント:

expanded flat ?

コメント:

almost there?

コメント:

コメント:

a lower degree bullish flag would signal a good buy opportunity

コメント:

It seems we can label the sub wave v of (c) as an ending diagonal

コメント:

コメント:

bullish target towards 1.18647 where wave {c} travels the same distance as wave {a}

コメント:

コメント:

コメント:

break below green wave {b} low at 1.14322 would activate alternative count in grey

コメント:

コメント:

コメント:

let's review the larger structure

コメント:

any close below the blue wave {b} low would argue wave 2 or B finished at 1.18153 (Sept high)

コメント:

コメント:

the short-term key support level is the end of blue wave {b} at 1.13021, break below this would eliminate the wave and green count.

コメント:

time to adopt more bearish count

コメント:

コメント:

bearish count

コメント:

The short-term pattern does not look bearish, maybe a complex {ii} or even wave 2 (or B) is still unfolding

コメント:

コメント:

It is possible to count wave {ii} has finished at 1.14968 (2nd Jan), where sub wave (c) is an ending diagonal. But the correction could be more complex.

コメント:

コメント:

idealised selling opportunity

コメント:

bearish assumption

コメント:

コメント:

OR

コメント:

if wave B is a triangle, then wave C could be an ending diagonal

コメント:

short-term count if an ending diagonal for wave C in the making

コメント:

コメント:

other possible structure

コメント:

possible short-term count

or

コメント:

コメント:

wave C done