Trading Novavax after Breakout

NVAX jumped roughly 20% overnight after announcing 96.4% efficacy against the disease caused by the original COVID-19 strain. This single move caused the shares to break out from the downside channel and crack through the 50-day and 20-day moving averages. With this important resistance zone left behind, the shares are poised to open just above the yearly Fibonacci R2 and monthly S1 levels ($216 and $213; RY2 and SM1 lines on the chart).

The question is whether the bulls can push the stock even higher today. Personally, I do not rule out that such a powerful upside gap - amid broader market concerns - could trigger some profit taking. Therefore, I will be watching to see if the stock can hold the RY2 / SM1 zone. If this happens, we can see NVAX approaching the $250 zone followed by the monthly pivot level ($258, PM) near-term.

On the downside, a break below RY2 / SM1 will put the 20- and 50-day moving averages to the test. An even more bearish scenario involves retesting recent diagonal resistance and potential gap filling at $188. This zone, however, should serve as very strong support, where we will definitely see buybacks.

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The bearish scenario is unfolding. NVAX tried to break above RY1 but ultimately failed. It has lost the SM2 level, has broken below the 20-day EMA and looks set to retest the 50-day moving average.