Red line is the trendline since 1980s.
Green line is the trendline since 2009.
Yellow line is the trendline since 2016.
Purple line is the trendline since October 2022.
Historically, whenever the market has climbed steeply, it has experienced two lows before continuing a long bull run. The market which started its steep uptrend in April 2020, reaching its peak in January 2022, was tested when it reached its low in October 2022.
Given the macroeconomic conditions, USA will likely go into recession in 2024. This is more likely around mid-2024 or maybe even in the beginning of second quarter when the impact of Fed's rate hiking would be felt the most. Around this time, I expect the second correction to happen when the index may go down to 4000. The next bull run would be up to end of 2025 when index will reach nearly 5200 - Fib level 1.618.
Green line is the trendline since 2009.
Yellow line is the trendline since 2016.
Purple line is the trendline since October 2022.
Historically, whenever the market has climbed steeply, it has experienced two lows before continuing a long bull run. The market which started its steep uptrend in April 2020, reaching its peak in January 2022, was tested when it reached its low in October 2022.
Given the macroeconomic conditions, USA will likely go into recession in 2024. This is more likely around mid-2024 or maybe even in the beginning of second quarter when the impact of Fed's rate hiking would be felt the most. Around this time, I expect the second correction to happen when the index may go down to 4000. The next bull run would be up to end of 2025 when index will reach nearly 5200 - Fib level 1.618.