Aaron-Hill

S&P 500 Update

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SP:SPX   S&P500指数
After chalking up a fifth consecutive month in the green (July +3.1%), aided by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the monthly timeframe rebounding from support between 40.00 and 50.00 (common in strong uptrends), the S&P 500 is down -2.7% MTD. To the upside, the all-time high at 4,818 (set at the beginning of 2022) remains a logical target as this market continues to emphasise a strong upside bias (trend). To the downside, support warrants attention at 4,102.

Price action on the weekly timeframe connected with resistance at 4,595 and channel resistance drawn from the high of 4,100 and guided the index lower at the beginning of this month. Downside momentum noticeably slowed last week, shedding only -0.3%. Should we break north of the current weekly resistance, resistance calls for attention at 4,743, followed by the all-time high; extending the recent correction swings the technical pendulum toward support at 4,325.

On the daily timeframe, 4,473 relinquished its position as support last week (now a marked resistance level) and uncovered a combination of a 50-day simple moving average at 4,438 (as of writing) and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 4,436.

The blend of daily support forming around 4,436, downside momentum slowing on the weekly scale, and monthly price demonstrating room to investigate higher levels highlights a potential bullish showing this week from the aforementioned daily structure.

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