CBMMR

S&P500 "2" Intermediate Trajectories

SP:SPX   S&P500指数
I believe that the effect of inflation expedited the grief stages of the current Bear Cycle, combining the Anger and Bargaining stages.

In my mind, collapse will undoubtedly follow the Depression stage If the wave cycle is completed.

I can easily see the so depleted investors entering the Depression stage if the market forcefully moves down following the inflation report on Friday, 06/10/22 were it to be hotter than expected. A bearish following week is necessary.


Lots of cash on the sidelines, though the perception of equities appears to have universally shifted to being an 'unadvisable' place to pour money into like before, given the downtrend and inflation rate being likely to remain high.

Facebook (Meta) being considered a Value Stock after fully committing to blaze the trail of the practically embryonic "Metaverse" is a prime example of the economic impact on growth rates & lowered value metrics.

This newly introduced, and far too late, selectiveness in conjunction with a rapidly dwindling U.S Savings rate and investors holding cash or diversifying securities more than usual will not sustain a full reversal.


A Bull run is definitely possible though.

Regardless, in the scenario of a Bull run, I ultimately see investors feeling the weight of inflation and the U.S Personal Savings Rate turning negative by Q4 22' or during Q1 23'. Collapse will soon follow in this scenario.



My Sole Analysis.
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