John J Murphy: Trends + Channels + Nothing Apocalyptical

2022年4月29日

MARKET CRASH INEVITABLE

Oh wait... maybe I meant

BUY THE DIP

Or maybe we forgot about consolidation? Look, this market is overextended. I think we can all face that as a fact whether we are bulls or bears. SPY hitting nearly $480? Remarkable given the fact that the SPY high before COVID-19 epidemic was ~$340 (a 34.15% difference). Now, with the COVID stimulus boiled in, epidemic recovery in place, as well as a war causing many bottlenecks (oil, commodities, and sanctions) and don't forget boiling inflation, it's time for things to cool off. No we aren't looking for a +20% market crash, because we are already -15% below record highs. Is there more to drop? Possibly, Either way, there are support channels we are going to ride for some time while markets and economies alike adjust

If you check out this link on John J Murphy: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets Reach Pages 121-123 and see if those images and paragraphs look a little familiar to our current situation...

P.S.: We will bounce off the weekly 200 SMA to the top of the channel