Bulls Last Stand | Historical Trendline Support

2020年5月13日

Today we hit one of the targets and filled the gap at $283.75. As predicted we hit decent support around the $280 level. This is a critical zone for the bulls, because if it breaks we're in my opinion headed down into the $240 range (next target is the gap at $248) and a very possible retest of at least the gap at $222 and the March lows. This price zone also coincides with a historical uptrend from the 08-09 lows. They did stage a late session rally to park us right above that historical trend line and the hourly 200 period MA. This is also part of the reason why this is a critical zone for the bulls.

This thesis is also gaining steam due to the uptick in volume today. We saw an average volume of almost 133m shares in SPY. That's in comparison to around 85m the past couple weeks. This shows follow through from the bears and also what's looking like institutional participation. Keep in mind we did break RSI trend as well. Also worth mentioning we had a daily 100 period/200 period MA cross yesterday. I need to reiterate that the bears NEED to follow through on selling or else we're suck in this sideways until we get another spike in cases and shutdowns or Jpow decides to start buying stocks and nationalize the bond market.

If the bulls do take the ball back expect a bounce from here. Possibly taking us back up to the $294 level, and if we get there expect a gap fill at about $304. Could have just been an ABC pattern to reload for another shot at the gap.

Further confirmation that this is a true reversal will be the VIX breaking through the breakdown candle highs of 40, and 42.

One thing to keep an eye on as well is big tech. AMZN, AAPl, MSFT, and GOOG. This is where big money has been hiding out but as i have pointed out the past week or two it has looked like they've been selling into strength and cycling out and/or shorting.

SPY Daily on historical trendline support. Note target zones and higher than normal volume.


/ES possible ABC pattern


Vix confirming this healthy reversal with a 26% gain in two days


IWM again getting whacked on higher than average volume


SPX


NDX trendline broken


DJI finding support on daily 50 period MA, not looking healthy though. Also note volume


AAPL showing a clear reversal


GOOG same story


MSFT also following through


AMZN is the only big tech name showing relative strength. And barely.


Hope everyone is staying sane and healthy. Keep your head on a swivel and happy trading.

This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA.