Leaning towards the purple arrow for this week, but as I've been stating, the channel trendline is the decider. If we can gap over (or rally over) the SPY channel trendline and hold it - blue arrow looks probable. If we gap up near the channel trendline, and fail to capture it - I think we'll sell the majority of the week.
We could also test the trendline a few times before it finally fails. That wouldn't surprise me as it frustrates both sides of the trade.
Target could be 266-4 on SPY, but it could also be less dramatic. 266-4 area to me would be a solid level to go long but it may take longer than a week to get there.
Good luck,
Sunship
We could also test the trendline a few times before it finally fails. That wouldn't surprise me as it frustrates both sides of the trade.
Target could be 266-4 on SPY, but it could also be less dramatic. 266-4 area to me would be a solid level to go long but it may take longer than a week to get there.
Good luck,
Sunship
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Good morning. Futures are still in it's triangle and we may hit the end of the D leg by open. Pullback for a day or two is possible if this is what futures chart is telling us. SPY update after open.
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With the SPY gap up, we may see a test of the lower channel today/tomorrow and then higher. This would correspond with the triangle idea on /ES (E wave).
IF the lower channel breaks again, that would be bearish.
IF the lower channel breaks again, that would be bearish.
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Futures now over the triangle trendline. The upper trendline should now act as support - 2930-2920 on /ES
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Another trendline (purple) on /ES which has acted as support, could pose some resistance here
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Looks like that purple trendline may hold back price. Another trendline I see (now that I've stopped looking for a triangle) is the lower green. If this plays out, a pullback to 2860 possible. Structure/geometry looks good and it would enable a pullback for SPY to it's channel trendline
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Stanley Druckenmiller's interview from last Tuesday. He's not surprised by the market rally but still bearish for the fall.
youtu.be/wKwoMuB2Tck
youtu.be/wKwoMuB2Tck
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I think the trendline here is important judging from the reaction. We'll see how it goes tonight. Good luck
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Marks today on the "unlimited QE" by the Fed youtu.be/HIx8MQ6mGZo
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Triangle on futures held the price overnight, Maybe one more high on /ES before a pullback
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SPY gapped down, could fill it's gap and then make it's way down to channel
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5 min trendline I'm watching on SPY, if it breaks we should see a down day.
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Trendline breaking on spy, keep an eye out for retest and fail
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They saved it, expecting higher today on SPY unless the line breaks at some point
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QQQ filled it's gap at 229.5
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NQ also filled it's gap today. The price "goals" on the tech indexes have been reached, now the question is does SPY catch up to the tech sector or do we fall away? There's quite a few gaps farther up on spy/ES.
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SPY trend Broken , may go up and test it, but this looks constructive for bears
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May not mean anything, but /RTY (IWM futures) hit my target for a back test this morning. It's an objective short here, but that doesn't mean it will work.
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Looks like a sell signal right now
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/es closed below support and spy close to channel trendline. I would expect a run down to 2870 area overnight on /es. That would gap down spy below the channel which could lead to a retest/fail tomorrow. Tech hitting it's targets on cash and futures may have been the end of the uptrend for a while. Of course, by morning we could be gapping up - again....
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/ES at trendline resistance. Needs to hold here otherwise rest of the night could be a creep up
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Saved /ES overnight and creeped it up, that figures. Probably get to the purple trendline again today on /es
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FOMC minutes today at 2pm, keep it on your radar.
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NQ ha s recovered 90 percent of it's losses. I had an alarm there because "B" waves are usually around 90 percent (but could go higher). May not mean anything at all, but there's capitulation by bears everywhere, so I find it interesting.
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SPY rejected so far at the .658 fib which is nice to see as algos use that to stop out anyone above .618 fib. I'm a bit like the bear who cried wolf lately - I know.
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Volume back to pre crash levels. 200 day is close but everyone is expecting it to get hit. Will it? I don't know
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ES pullback last night and this morning looks corrective. I'm expecting lower prices today, but here are the two options
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279.9 needs to be taken out for spy to get to the 200 ma on the daily
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Jerome Powell speech today at 2:30 pm
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IWM still hugging this trendline with more negative divergences. If we get over it and hold, it's bullish, otherwise I'm expecting it to fall. As of now, it's an uptrend until it isn't.
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SPY forming a bit of a head and shoulders pattern. Futures may save it as usual, but certainly seems like the market has lost some momentum at this level.
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Trendline reached overnight. Could go either way today. /RTY is telling me probably lower after a bounce, but hard to say at this point.
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SPY may test neckline and then fail. If it can get over the neckline, possible rally for today
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SPY showing small time frame bull divergences. If we get over the neckline, I would expect 296 area for target
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there it is
