USDCHF Analysis

2020年5月28日

Good afternoon traders, here's my analysis on USDCHF, here we can see a wedge pattern forming. We are waiting patiently to see if we can get a break of this structure and if price is to retest, proving good entry opportunities, we then could go down to the 4 hour to look for good r/r setups. From a COT perspective we can see the CHF at its strongest according to NET POSITIONS in the last several months.. but this is not due to banks buying the asset, they are simply removing shorts & therefor reducing exposure. This is why we can see the pair consolidating in this pattern. The fact that the CHF is in its strongest net positions is from a reduction of shorts.. the banks are not buying CHF. This information we can gather from the banks gives me a short CHF bias.. we also need to consider how closely the CHF is affected by market sentiment related to the pandemic (risk on/off). We are watching closely to see how this pair will react.