USDJPY Short

2019年9月15日

Fundamental analysis:

USD
Bullish:

Strong currency since trump took over presidency
Strong economic growth
Considered a safe haven currency

JPY
Bullish:
Considered a safe haven currency
Strong economy

So these are actually 2 bullish currencies BUT, the US is thinking about cutting rates so I believe the FOMC press conference will be more hawkish than the market has priced in. Japanese Yen right now is the only currency I consider as strong as the USD. So therefor I believe this trade will work. COT net traders positions show the retail traders blindly longing the USD in every pair, institutions and hedge funds are heavily long on the JPY. A lot of liquidity will be around the 105.000 region stopping longs out.


Technical analysis:

We have seen a pullback happening from the lows at 104.500 in a swift reverse to what I now consider a resistance at around 108.000. A lot of order flow will be around this number, should we break 108.000 then a short entry until 109.000 is even better. Should we see a strong daily close above 109.000 then I consider this trade invalid.

Take profit levels:
Conservative TP1: Around the 20 day moving average at 106.700
TP2: 106.000
TP3: 105.000

Feedback welcome