MQP 12Q EXIT STRATEGY 2, (MINI) LIQUIDITY CRISIS SHOCK & AWE
HEADER - This is supplement to post 12P. This is what I see right now.
SUMMARY - I want to exit BEFORE NY CLOSE TODAY. I am planning on re-entry BEFORE NY CLOSE FRIDAY OR MONDAY NY OPEN. If you want the most out this move YOU HAVE TO BE IN FUTURES OR FUTURES OPTIONS (23 hours a day).
DETAILS - Please understand that plans can change. But until they do, I am expecting this one to surprise both bulls and bears, but shocking bears by end of next week. Obviously, I would short today's close in futures BUT COVER AT MIDNIGHT and ABSOLUTELY SHORT FRIDAY NY OPEN OR EVEN BEFORE (prior to NFP at 7:30 AM ET). And I would exit re-entry longs on WED NEXT WEEK BEFORE NY CLOSE. Good luck with this, it's everything I've got. If I am ever make you serious money, IT IS THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
SUMMARY - I want to exit BEFORE NY CLOSE TODAY. I am planning on re-entry BEFORE NY CLOSE FRIDAY OR MONDAY NY OPEN. If you want the most out this move YOU HAVE TO BE IN FUTURES OR FUTURES OPTIONS (23 hours a day).
DETAILS - Please understand that plans can change. But until they do, I am expecting this one to surprise both bulls and bears, but shocking bears by end of next week. Obviously, I would short today's close in futures BUT COVER AT MIDNIGHT and ABSOLUTELY SHORT FRIDAY NY OPEN OR EVEN BEFORE (prior to NFP at 7:30 AM ET). And I would exit re-entry longs on WED NEXT WEEK BEFORE NY CLOSE. Good luck with this, it's everything I've got. If I am ever make you serious money, IT IS THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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UPDATE 9:54 AM ET THURSDAY, HARD STOP FOR TODAY IS 1920...
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I WOULD VERY CONCERNED SOMETHING ELSE IS HAPPENING.
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UPDATE 10:07 AM ET
1) it's still 1930, it's getting REALLY LATE FOR THIS MOVE TO HAPPEN
2) we are should be at 1955 and we are not
3) please have a back up plan in place, bc price is not at a "stall and do nothing area"
4) it's somewhat of a DO OR DIE level where bulls will get punished for hesitation
1) it's still 1930, it's getting REALLY LATE FOR THIS MOVE TO HAPPEN
2) we are should be at 1955 and we are not
3) please have a back up plan in place, bc price is not at a "stall and do nothing area"
4) it's somewhat of a DO OR DIE level where bulls will get punished for hesitation
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UPDATE 11:13 AM ET
1) missed that window
2) stay long
3) we can't go down a lot unless we go up a lot first
4) if we don't go up, today's floor is 1910-1912
1) missed that window
2) stay long
3) we can't go down a lot unless we go up a lot first
4) if we don't go up, today's floor is 1910-1912
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UPDATE 12:33 AM ET
1) FLOOR IS SHALLOWER THAN THOUGHT
2) there's no quick route up though
3) what a bout giant swings?
4) the longer we go, without moving up, the higher the top has to be to compensate
5) now it looks like a monday top would make sense, but it looks like stair case up from here
1) FLOOR IS SHALLOWER THAN THOUGHT
2) there's no quick route up though
3) what a bout giant swings?
4) the longer we go, without moving up, the higher the top has to be to compensate
5) now it looks like a monday top would make sense, but it looks like stair case up from here
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6) until we top, we can't swing, we have to top first
7) today's ceiling was like 2005, tomorrow 2016, Monday ceiling 2028, Tuesday ceiling 2040+
7) today's ceiling was like 2005, tomorrow 2016, Monday ceiling 2028, Tuesday ceiling 2040+
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8) can we catch up to liquidity crisis route?
9) no, even though we are going up again, we missed those curves
10) and by default, ALL THE CURVES SHIFT, so you get something entirely different
11) what DOES NOT CHANGE, is a major correction after a 2035+ high (this number is about to shift up too)
9) no, even though we are going up again, we missed those curves
10) and by default, ALL THE CURVES SHIFT, so you get something entirely different
11) what DOES NOT CHANGE, is a major correction after a 2035+ high (this number is about to shift up too)
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HERE IS THE WHAT I SEE NOW
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UPDATE 9:51 AM ET FRI
1) I am aware its moving up
2) I don't have anything SPECIFIC to add except it's going to top from here to next Thursday
3) that doesn't help that much I know, but I don't have a SPECIFIC PATTERN for what price is doing
4) it went from single top to double top, to what looks like a tripple top (counting today as the first of three tops)
5) that's just TOO MUCH shifting to try and forecast something
6) just have a target in mind and exit when you hit that that target
7) I can't sell today (friday) for less than 2010
8) and if that doesn't hit, then I move target up gradually through WED 3/9
9) be prepared to stomach 40-60-pt swings until 2070
10) if that's not your thing, then PICK A TARGET BEFORE 2015 AND WAIT FOR A RETRACE
11) but then understand that RETRACES DON'T' HAVE TO HAPPEN IF ITS EXTREME 1 2 WAY VOL LIKE the last run to 1973 (it just goes all the way up and then smash down)
12) SO MAKEUP YOUR MIND FIRST AND WATCH PRICE CAREFULLY
1) I am aware its moving up
2) I don't have anything SPECIFIC to add except it's going to top from here to next Thursday
3) that doesn't help that much I know, but I don't have a SPECIFIC PATTERN for what price is doing
4) it went from single top to double top, to what looks like a tripple top (counting today as the first of three tops)
5) that's just TOO MUCH shifting to try and forecast something
6) just have a target in mind and exit when you hit that that target
7) I can't sell today (friday) for less than 2010
8) and if that doesn't hit, then I move target up gradually through WED 3/9
9) be prepared to stomach 40-60-pt swings until 2070
10) if that's not your thing, then PICK A TARGET BEFORE 2015 AND WAIT FOR A RETRACE
11) but then understand that RETRACES DON'T' HAVE TO HAPPEN IF ITS EXTREME 1 2 WAY VOL LIKE the last run to 1973 (it just goes all the way up and then smash down)
12) SO MAKEUP YOUR MIND FIRST AND WATCH PRICE CAREFULLY
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13) TYPO* FOR 11): EXTREME 1, AND THEN 2 WAY VOL...
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UPDATE 11:46 AM ET FRI - Why am I adamant about longer is higher?
1) in my research of regression spreads (when they fan out in rallies), certain things are very dependable
2) we are reaching a major regression spread at a bullish super long term juncture (think 50 years)
3) that spreads means 2000-2070 levels for TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
4) so, if today can't deliver 2010 (max spread is like 2017), I can wait for next week for better exit, but the longer I wait odds point to a 2040 then 2065, 205 high for max spread next week
5) why not higher? bc at MAX SPREAD, THE BASE REGRESSIONS OF THE MOVE, THAT ARE 200+_ PTS LOWER ARE OUT OF ORDER
6) MEANING THE SHORTER ONES ARE BEHIND THE LONGER ONES BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK
1) in my research of regression spreads (when they fan out in rallies), certain things are very dependable
2) we are reaching a major regression spread at a bullish super long term juncture (think 50 years)
3) that spreads means 2000-2070 levels for TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
4) so, if today can't deliver 2010 (max spread is like 2017), I can wait for next week for better exit, but the longer I wait odds point to a 2040 then 2065, 205 high for max spread next week
5) why not higher? bc at MAX SPREAD, THE BASE REGRESSIONS OF THE MOVE, THAT ARE 200+_ PTS LOWER ARE OUT OF ORDER
6) MEANING THE SHORTER ONES ARE BEHIND THE LONGER ONES BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK
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4) TYPO 2065-2075
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7) THAT MEANS THAT MEAN REVERSING IS NEXT, FOR THAT SIZE, 125-150 PTS CORRECTION THAT ODDS SAY COMPLETE IN 48-72 HOURS
8) this means the bottom should be Monday 3/14 or Tuesday 3/15
9) is it coincidence that FOMC is 3/16?, I don't know, but it is
10) Good luck w/ your exit strategy!
8) this means the bottom should be Monday 3/14 or Tuesday 3/15
9) is it coincidence that FOMC is 3/16?, I don't know, but it is
10) Good luck w/ your exit strategy!
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LAST NOTES FOR FRIDAY 1:05 PM
1) it doesn't look like we can touch 1990s today unless it's after market
2) so it's a hold for me
3) sunday open international market should tag 2015, and retrace to 1950 afterwards
before higher
4) that's all for today
5) we should clear 2015 again on Tuesday, that's looking like my exit for now
6) have a good weekend
1) it doesn't look like we can touch 1990s today unless it's after market
2) so it's a hold for me
3) sunday open international market should tag 2015, and retrace to 1950 afterwards
before higher
4) that's all for today
5) we should clear 2015 again on Tuesday, that's looking like my exit for now
6) have a good weekend
1) I am going to be focused ONLY ON MY EXECUTION THIS NEXT 5 DAYS
2) If I do not post anything else, that means I'm sticking with my stated plans in DETAILS above.
3) I would rebuy at 60% FRIDAY CLOSE AND 40% MONDAY OPEN, or even 70-30.