MQP 12O - STILL 100% CONVICTION, REPOST
HEADER - I am really, really confident we nail that first box next week or the beginning of the week after (3/7-3/8). Repost for chart settings.
SUMMARY - Couple of other things I am sure about 2235 by 4/28, but looking more like 4/18. BUT, It's not going to be a smooth ride based on recent price action.
DETAILS - In the most recent notes, I've stated:
1) the possibility of 2-way high vol swing ultimately all the way up
2) my strategy on holding all the way to 4/28
3) the nature of high movement in short to intermediate term regressions creating moving targets/dates (in between, 22xx for late april is somewhat final)
SO? - As I stated yesterday, exit/re-entry is your decision. My strategy now final is to hold all way through 4-28 and 2235, whichever comes first. Exit and re-entry always sounds good, but in practice, it's incredibly difficult to do. I've tried, so I'd rather just hold to the top.
SUMMARY - Couple of other things I am sure about 2235 by 4/28, but looking more like 4/18. BUT, It's not going to be a smooth ride based on recent price action.
DETAILS - In the most recent notes, I've stated:
1) the possibility of 2-way high vol swing ultimately all the way up
2) my strategy on holding all the way to 4/28
3) the nature of high movement in short to intermediate term regressions creating moving targets/dates (in between, 22xx for late april is somewhat final)
SO? - As I stated yesterday, exit/re-entry is your decision. My strategy now final is to hold all way through 4-28 and 2235, whichever comes first. Exit and re-entry always sounds good, but in practice, it's incredibly difficult to do. I've tried, so I'd rather just hold to the top.
コメント:
should be more like this:
コメント:
FOR CHART ABOVE:
1) after we hit the next box 3/4-3/7 ala 2040, expect another annoying crash
2) two more big stair cases
3) vol runs out AFTER FOMC 3/16, then all the way up,
4) almost no vol after 3/28 (not a literal straight line, just no flash crash)
1) after we hit the next box 3/4-3/7 ala 2040, expect another annoying crash
2) two more big stair cases
3) vol runs out AFTER FOMC 3/16, then all the way up,
4) almost no vol after 3/28 (not a literal straight line, just no flash crash)
コメント:
SUNDAY OPEN 6:20
Open gapped up to 1930, if gap does not close by Tuesday, extremely high 2 way vol coming. Right now I see 1980s by 3/2, 2070 is possible by 3/3 or maybe 3/4 . BUT ALL OF THIS MAY ALSO HAPPEN BY 3/2.
IT SHOULD GET A MASSIVE RETRACE OF 150 PTS OR SO WITHIN 72 HOURS OF THE HIGH.
Open gapped up to 1930, if gap does not close by Tuesday, extremely high 2 way vol coming. Right now I see 1980s by 3/2, 2070 is possible by 3/3 or maybe 3/4 . BUT ALL OF THIS MAY ALSO HAPPEN BY 3/2.
IT SHOULD GET A MASSIVE RETRACE OF 150 PTS OR SO WITHIN 72 HOURS OF THE HIGH.
コメント:
UPDATE 7.46 PL ET
Please understand....
In extreme vol moments we may hit that 2035+arget even as early as Monday 2/28. Doesn't matter what day we hit that number (as high as 2075), it is AN EXIT AND THAT IS FINAL.
Please understand....
In extreme vol moments we may hit that 2035+arget even as early as Monday 2/28. Doesn't matter what day we hit that number (as high as 2075), it is AN EXIT AND THAT IS FINAL.
コメント:
Right now it looks like 3/3 but can change to 3/2 or earlier.
コメント:
UPDATE MON 9:44 AM ET
Closed that gap. But timing of of top is the same, looking like 60-72 hours and closer to 60 hours. This about 8 pm ET WEDNESDAY 3/3. This is the most likely spot. Again, odds of making it in 24 hours exist and is real. The latest high looks like Monday. Odds of low 72 hours after the high now has risen to 1915 instead of 1875.
Closed that gap. But timing of of top is the same, looking like 60-72 hours and closer to 60 hours. This about 8 pm ET WEDNESDAY 3/3. This is the most likely spot. Again, odds of making it in 24 hours exist and is real. The latest high looks like Monday. Odds of low 72 hours after the high now has risen to 1915 instead of 1875.
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UPDATE 10 AM ET TUES, CORRECTION.
THIS CHART'S PATH IS LATE BY A DAY OR TOO, MEANING PRICE SHOULD TOP THURS 3/3.
THIS CHART'S PATH IS LATE BY A DAY OR TOO, MEANING PRICE SHOULD TOP THURS 3/3.
コメント:
UPDATE 10:10 AM ET TUES
First, this is the back-to-back fractal I am seeing with different ratios:
First, this is the back-to-back fractal I am seeing with different ratios:
コメント:
For chart above:
1) left is where we are, right is where we were w/ offsetting bar size
2) this is not standard IRL (if I have time, I will post one with standard IRL)
3) for this compare/contrast, bar size is 150% of chart to right
4) based on the bar count, top should be inside 20 hours
5) but if you look at the gray wave on the left, it's not moving diagonally
6) it's going sideways for a while longer
7) total break down for all thew waves say 48-60 hours is fair
1) left is where we are, right is where we were w/ offsetting bar size
2) this is not standard IRL (if I have time, I will post one with standard IRL)
3) for this compare/contrast, bar size is 150% of chart to right
4) based on the bar count, top should be inside 20 hours
5) but if you look at the gray wave on the left, it's not moving diagonally
6) it's going sideways for a while longer
7) total break down for all thew waves say 48-60 hours is fair
コメント:
UPDATE 10:27 AM ET TUESDAY, HERE IS IRL W/ RATIOS:
コメント:
For the chart above:
1) left side is IMMEDIATELY STRONGER
2) but INTERMEDIATELLY WEAKER
3) but definitive stronger on A LONG TERM BASIS
4) this is w/ RESPECT TO 45-MIN AND 90 BARS
5) so INTEMEDIATE would 30 hours and long term would be 80 hours
1) left side is IMMEDIATELY STRONGER
2) but INTERMEDIATELLY WEAKER
3) but definitive stronger on A LONG TERM BASIS
4) this is w/ RESPECT TO 45-MIN AND 90 BARS
5) so INTEMEDIATE would 30 hours and long term would be 80 hours
コメント:
10:38 AM ET: I HIGHLY RECOMMEND FOLLOWING WTH THESE SETTINGS:
コメント:
For chart above:
1) top should be where dark 3 waves merge
2) this is exhaustion of dark gray wave
3) you will get a BIGGER SWING, but the drawdown MAYBE NOT AS QUICK
4) bar-to-bar, it would be like 1 day, but will be more like 3 days
5) bc as stated above, STRONGER ON A LONG TERM BASIS
1) top should be where dark 3 waves merge
2) this is exhaustion of dark gray wave
3) you will get a BIGGER SWING, but the drawdown MAYBE NOT AS QUICK
4) bar-to-bar, it would be like 1 day, but will be more like 3 days
5) bc as stated above, STRONGER ON A LONG TERM BASIS
コメント:
UPDATE 10:44 AM ET TUESDAY
1) it goes w/o saying is that the RECOMMENDED EXIT above 2035 is also A STRONG TACTICAL SHORT
2) especially ABOVE 2065, short it for a week
3) you ALMOST can't lose, ALMOST
1) it goes w/o saying is that the RECOMMENDED EXIT above 2035 is also A STRONG TACTICAL SHORT
2) especially ABOVE 2065, short it for a week
3) you ALMOST can't lose, ALMOST
コメント:
UPDATE 10:47 AM ET TUESDAY
1) as I have been saying on this page, 24-hour TOP is a continous possibility
2) meaning in extreme vol, it goes all the way up TOO QUICK AND THEN REVERSES JUST AS QUICKLY
3) so you have to watch for the top carefully
1) as I have been saying on this page, 24-hour TOP is a continous possibility
2) meaning in extreme vol, it goes all the way up TOO QUICK AND THEN REVERSES JUST AS QUICKLY
3) so you have to watch for the top carefully
コメント:
UPDATE: 11:10 AM TUES, here is the basis for this move:
コメント:
For the chart above:
1) the far right is 12 -hour bars, it's critical juncture (periods not arbitrary)
2) the middle is zoom-in 3X, so the base of middle chart would stack at THE GRAY LINE ON THE RIGHT
3) and 80-min chart on the left would stack at THE GRAY LINE ON THE MIDDLE CHART
1) the far right is 12 -hour bars, it's critical juncture (periods not arbitrary)
2) the middle is zoom-in 3X, so the base of middle chart would stack at THE GRAY LINE ON THE RIGHT
3) and 80-min chart on the left would stack at THE GRAY LINE ON THE MIDDLE CHART
コメント:
4) the problem why we are not higher is the middle chart's section between 1852 and 1858
5) those regressions ARE OUT OF ORDER, MEANING THE SHORT ONES ARE LOWER THAN THE LONG ONES FOR THAT SECTION AND THAT SECTION ONLY
6) the deadline for this to resolve is 3/7-3/8 (if price GOES NOWHERE)
7) hence the natural progression to continue would resolve by 3/4
8) that's why I put the top at 3/3
5) those regressions ARE OUT OF ORDER, MEANING THE SHORT ONES ARE LOWER THAN THE LONG ONES FOR THAT SECTION AND THAT SECTION ONLY
6) the deadline for this to resolve is 3/7-3/8 (if price GOES NOWHERE)
7) hence the natural progression to continue would resolve by 3/4
8) that's why I put the top at 3/3
コメント:
9) but I still said above that IT MAY TAKE TO 3/7-3/8 just in case
10) WHY?
11) because IT CAN
12) the 3 charts I posted before this discussed "the topping pattern"
13) in topping scenarios, when ALL THE SUPER LONG REGRESSIONS AGREE LIKE THEY DO NOW, WITH MINOR EXCEPTIONS, "the topping pattern" dictates the move
14) but the SUPER LONG REGRESSIONS DICTATE THE SWING
10) WHY?
11) because IT CAN
12) the 3 charts I posted before this discussed "the topping pattern"
13) in topping scenarios, when ALL THE SUPER LONG REGRESSIONS AGREE LIKE THEY DO NOW, WITH MINOR EXCEPTIONS, "the topping pattern" dictates the move
14) but the SUPER LONG REGRESSIONS DICTATE THE SWING
コメント:
UPDATE 11:38 AM ET
1) tomorrow is Wednesday, ADP, Powell also talks to congress
2) new moon NASA time is 12:xx PM ET
3) new moon date is Thursday, Powell talks continue
4) NFP IS FRIDAY
5) w/ russia-ukraine in the news, A LOT OF EVENTS FOR HIGH VOL
1) tomorrow is Wednesday, ADP, Powell also talks to congress
2) new moon NASA time is 12:xx PM ET
3) new moon date is Thursday, Powell talks continue
4) NFP IS FRIDAY
5) w/ russia-ukraine in the news, A LOT OF EVENTS FOR HIGH VOL
コメント:
6) let's make some dough this week!
コメント:
7) I don't discuss fib ratios a lot bc they start with FIB, but ...
8) it's 1933, net targets should be 1945, brake, retrace, 1980s, break, bigger retrace
9) that bigger retrace should be 40-pts ish, but could be 15 OR 60 (not precise here)
10) after that WATCH THE 2035 LEVL LIKE A HAWK
8) it's 1933, net targets should be 1945, brake, retrace, 1980s, break, bigger retrace
9) that bigger retrace should be 40-pts ish, but could be 15 OR 60 (not precise here)
10) after that WATCH THE 2035 LEVL LIKE A HAWK
コメント:
7) I don't discuss fib ratios a lot bc they start with FIB, but ...
8) it's 1933, net targets should be 1945, brake, retrace, 1980s, break, bigger retrace
9) that bigger retrace should be 40-pts ish, but could be 15 OR 60 (not precise here)
10) after that WATCH THE 2035 LEVEL LIKE A HAWK
8) it's 1933, net targets should be 1945, brake, retrace, 1980s, break, bigger retrace
9) that bigger retrace should be 40-pts ish, but could be 15 OR 60 (not precise here)
10) after that WATCH THE 2035 LEVEL LIKE A HAWK
コメント:
UPDATE 1:13 PM ET
1) clear-eyed look says top afternoon of thurs 3/3
2) twisting momentum says tomorrow is not impossible
3) so please pay attention to price action
4) while I want to be updated when I exit, I maybe late a few hours
5) in this environment 5 hours may make or break 50pts, so please be aware
1) clear-eyed look says top afternoon of thurs 3/3
2) twisting momentum says tomorrow is not impossible
3) so please pay attention to price action
4) while I want to be updated when I exit, I maybe late a few hours
5) in this environment 5 hours may make or break 50pts, so please be aware
コメント:
UPDATE 1:22 PM ET
1940, AS OF THIS SECOND (THIS STUFF CHANGES A LOT). ODDS DO FAVOR 1970-1980 BY 2 AM ET WED 03/02, BUT ODDS STILL FAVOR 2035 TOP THURS 03/03, MAYBE BEFORE NOON INSTEAD OF AFTER NOON.
1940, AS OF THIS SECOND (THIS STUFF CHANGES A LOT). ODDS DO FAVOR 1970-1980 BY 2 AM ET WED 03/02, BUT ODDS STILL FAVOR 2035 TOP THURS 03/03, MAYBE BEFORE NOON INSTEAD OF AFTER NOON.
コメント:
UPDATE 1:29 PM ET 1942
1. tomorrowis WED 03/02
2. ADP is 8:15 ET (seems a little late, but I checked)
3. Charles Evans speaks at 9 AM (Chicago Fed)
4. James Bullards speaks at 9:30 AM (St Louis Fed)
5. Powell speaks to congress at 10:00 AM
6. from NASA: Wednesday midday, March 2, 2022, at 12:35 p.m. EST, will be the new Moon
7. pulling back from 1940S now, IRL curves for topping tomorrow is is real
8. I'm going to say it's 20-25%
9. if it's a runaway right now, then clearing 1975 by 7pm ET TONIGHT would make that situation PROBABLY A COINFLIP (TOP 03/02 OR TOP 03/03)
1. tomorrowis WED 03/02
2. ADP is 8:15 ET (seems a little late, but I checked)
3. Charles Evans speaks at 9 AM (Chicago Fed)
4. James Bullards speaks at 9:30 AM (St Louis Fed)
5. Powell speaks to congress at 10:00 AM
6. from NASA: Wednesday midday, March 2, 2022, at 12:35 p.m. EST, will be the new Moon
7. pulling back from 1940S now, IRL curves for topping tomorrow is is real
8. I'm going to say it's 20-25%
9. if it's a runaway right now, then clearing 1975 by 7pm ET TONIGHT would make that situation PROBABLY A COINFLIP (TOP 03/02 OR TOP 03/03)
コメント:
UPDATE 3:34 PM ET TUESDAY STILL
1. I see "a top" tomorrow, but I don't know if it's "THE TOP"
2. I see 2000-2010
3. I see a pullback after wards
4. but I don't know if it's "A MASSIVE PULLBACK", bc the wave seems incomplete (from a total spread position), I would agree if we tag something like 2035
5. So I am thinking that we top like 2010, have a dramatic pullback like 50 pts and then
6. AND THEN WE GO ALL THE WAY UP AGAIN TO 2070 AFTERNOON OF 3/3.
1. I see "a top" tomorrow, but I don't know if it's "THE TOP"
2. I see 2000-2010
3. I see a pullback after wards
4. but I don't know if it's "A MASSIVE PULLBACK", bc the wave seems incomplete (from a total spread position), I would agree if we tag something like 2035
5. So I am thinking that we top like 2010, have a dramatic pullback like 50 pts and then
6. AND THEN WE GO ALL THE WAY UP AGAIN TO 2070 AFTERNOON OF 3/3.
コメント:
7. this makes the most sense to me
8. but I don't know what to recommend
9. my strategy right now is SELL NY OPEN TOMORROW and wait after POWELL SPEECH TO MAKE A DECISION ON RE-ENTRY
8. but I don't know what to recommend
9. my strategy right now is SELL NY OPEN TOMORROW and wait after POWELL SPEECH TO MAKE A DECISION ON RE-ENTRY
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