HEADER - I explained in 14A and 15A that I have some signals saying bottom is in (just minutes ago really). If so, this is coming.
SUMMARY - I bought 20k of 3/25 GC 2000 calls as insurance. This is because I see 2110 AS A MINIMUM ON 3/23, and that's THE BEARISH SCENARIO where we move to 1946 first.
DETAILS - I literally have no time for this, so I just threw this chart together. Where we just spiked from 1982 to what is now 1993 is very strange. Volume and price curves all said 1946 MINIMUM in hours. But then price broke ALL THE CURVES TO MOVE UP. Somebody out there knows something and they just put a floor under the gold price. If I have time - and I don't - I'll discuss the other signals I saw. Anyway, if you can handle a 50 pt swing, I would get long now. For some reason, I have the impression that it will be too late 12 hours from now.
SUMMARY - I bought 20k of 3/25 GC 2000 calls as insurance. This is because I see 2110 AS A MINIMUM ON 3/23, and that's THE BEARISH SCENARIO where we move to 1946 first.
DETAILS - I literally have no time for this, so I just threw this chart together. Where we just spiked from 1982 to what is now 1993 is very strange. Volume and price curves all said 1946 MINIMUM in hours. But then price broke ALL THE CURVES TO MOVE UP. Somebody out there knows something and they just put a floor under the gold price. If I have time - and I don't - I'll discuss the other signals I saw. Anyway, if you can handle a 50 pt swing, I would get long now. For some reason, I have the impression that it will be too late 12 hours from now.
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BTW - What's so weird about this is that I happened to wake up IN THE MIDDLE NIGHT and decided to look for the hell of it. But I I wasn't totally surprised because the intermediate to long curves have been saying 24xx in April is a legit possibility. In that scenario, you really don't have a lot of time to PULLBACK AND THEN RUN BACK UP, there's only so many days left between now and 4/18 to get to 2450 or even 2500.
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Notes:
1) so obviously that didn't happen like expected
2) have I changed my mind, NO 100% CONVICTION
3) 3/22 target 2140
4) basically we can hit the high from 3/18 THROUGH 3/22, from 2110 to 2160
5) so I took 10% entry last night at 1990
6) I took 20% entry this morning at 1977, should've taken it at 1960, but was indecisive
7) is there ANOTHER LOW possible and WHEN?
8) maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday, maybe 1946 or 1950, AND maybe not
9) hence I have a 30% entry Monday, and 40% on late Monday OR Tuesday
10) AGAIN, I DO NOT TRADE IN AND OUT OF BIG RALLLIES BECAUSE IT'S ANNOYING
11) plan is same as last time, hold all the way through
1) so obviously that didn't happen like expected
2) have I changed my mind, NO 100% CONVICTION
3) 3/22 target 2140
4) basically we can hit the high from 3/18 THROUGH 3/22, from 2110 to 2160
5) so I took 10% entry last night at 1990
6) I took 20% entry this morning at 1977, should've taken it at 1960, but was indecisive
7) is there ANOTHER LOW possible and WHEN?
8) maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday, maybe 1946 or 1950, AND maybe not
9) hence I have a 30% entry Monday, and 40% on late Monday OR Tuesday
10) AGAIN, I DO NOT TRADE IN AND OUT OF BIG RALLLIES BECAUSE IT'S ANNOYING
11) plan is same as last time, hold all the way through
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12) since I taper up my entries, I am already up on the combined two entries of last night and this morning
13) but again, I am prepared to be wrong on MONDAY AND TUESDAY
14) so I regret nothing because I have a plan and I stick to it
15) pick a stop you are comfortable with,
16) I'll update the chart on Tuesday, so there's less work to deal with
13) but again, I am prepared to be wrong on MONDAY AND TUESDAY
14) so I regret nothing because I have a plan and I stick to it
15) pick a stop you are comfortable with,
16) I'll update the chart on Tuesday, so there's less work to deal with
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17) here's a look at same set of curves above
18) essentially speaking, same curves, bc as I've stated before ...
19) it's not the move that counts, it's the reaction to the move
20) hence basically stick save on big bars, doesn't even change wave structure
21) THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE CAN'T HAVE A DROP TO 1950 ON MON OR TUES
22) it just means that I am already TAPERING IN CASE WE DON'T
18) essentially speaking, same curves, bc as I've stated before ...
19) it's not the move that counts, it's the reaction to the move
20) hence basically stick save on big bars, doesn't even change wave structure
21) THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE CAN'T HAVE A DROP TO 1950 ON MON OR TUES
22) it just means that I am already TAPERING IN CASE WE DON'T
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23) next time I suggest insurance, I'll remember to suggest INSURANCE FOR insurance
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Here's some thoughts with this chart:
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1) so the left is what we've just went through
2) the right is where we are at
3) at 1/3 ratio of regressions the "release point" IS RIGHT NOW (for the "twisting regressions that make up the rallly)
4) THE CROSS OVER is the high, where I mark 3/22 will be on the left chart
is where it will crossover on the right chart
5) remember when we had that explosive move up and crash?
6) that's what's coming on after 4/18
7) why do I have the 4/18 high so high?
8) see where I mark H & L for the twisting waves?
9) H is for higher, L is for lower
10) on the left side H regressions were solved (in order top down) but L regressions WERE A MESS, and we still broke the channel upside
11) on the right BOTH H AND L, AND ALL OTHER REGRESSIONS PERIOD FULL STOP ARE SOLVED
12) MEANS THAT H AND L ARE SOLVED
13) AND THAT THE REST ARE IN EXPLOSIVE MOVE UP STRUCTURE
2) the right is where we are at
3) at 1/3 ratio of regressions the "release point" IS RIGHT NOW (for the "twisting regressions that make up the rallly)
4) THE CROSS OVER is the high, where I mark 3/22 will be on the left chart
is where it will crossover on the right chart
5) remember when we had that explosive move up and crash?
6) that's what's coming on after 4/18
7) why do I have the 4/18 high so high?
8) see where I mark H & L for the twisting waves?
9) H is for higher, L is for lower
10) on the left side H regressions were solved (in order top down) but L regressions WERE A MESS, and we still broke the channel upside
11) on the right BOTH H AND L, AND ALL OTHER REGRESSIONS PERIOD FULL STOP ARE SOLVED
12) MEANS THAT H AND L ARE SOLVED
13) AND THAT THE REST ARE IN EXPLOSIVE MOVE UP STRUCTURE
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14) that's why am in a HURRY TO GET IN POSITION
15) it's BUY BUY AND BUY HERE TO TUESDAY
16) compared with the left side, WE JUST HAD THE SECOND DIP
17) so TAPER IN NOW
15) it's BUY BUY AND BUY HERE TO TUESDAY
16) compared with the left side, WE JUST HAD THE SECOND DIP
17) so TAPER IN NOW
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18) **** DREW THE 3/22 HIGH TOO HIGH, IT SHOULD BE 2160, NOT 22XX
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HERE IS WHAT 12 MONTHS LOOK LIKE FROM WHERE WE STAND:
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6) for chart above, it looks more and more like the bottom is in at 1958
7) there is a 40% chance of a 1946 low BEFORE MONDAY NY CLOSE, so next 16 trading hours
8) after running regression sets over and over, it looks more and more and more and more like the high will come 3/17, 3/3/18 if late
7) there is a 40% chance of a 1946 low BEFORE MONDAY NY CLOSE, so next 16 trading hours
8) after running regression sets over and over, it looks more and more and more and more like the high will come 3/17, 3/3/18 if late
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9) that 2160 high will be sold to 2070 , 4/18 looks like 2380-2420
10) will be sold to 2070 AGAIN before MAY high of 2500
10) will be sold to 2070 AGAIN before MAY high of 2500
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For hindenbugomen, this is the 2 fractals that will best represent the move coming. I'll post the chart first:
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1) ok, here are some notes for chart above
2) I'll also be using this as the basis for next 30 months of price action
3) on the left above is 1978
4) in the center is right now
5) here is just the two of them side by side:
2) I'll also be using this as the basis for next 30 months of price action
3) on the left above is 1978
4) in the center is right now
5) here is just the two of them side by side:
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6) so I am going to zoom in on the two red boxes:
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6a) I also added 2 black boxes
b) first, the red boxes represent long term price action
c) that means we are looking for an 8000 to 10000 target in some time in 2025
d) but there's one ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL DIFFERENCE
e) on the left the blue wave dipped down ONLY TO THE RED WAVE
f) on the right it dipped all the way too the dark gray wave
g) remember when I suspected collapse in december-january period?
h) that was because it looked like for a second that the blue wave would penetrate the dark gray wave (based on daily price action)
i) but that didn't happen and when I was sure that the blue wave would turn up
j) i had conviction then to go all-in on gold late january to feb
h) here's 12c again:
b) first, the red boxes represent long term price action
c) that means we are looking for an 8000 to 10000 target in some time in 2025
d) but there's one ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL DIFFERENCE
e) on the left the blue wave dipped down ONLY TO THE RED WAVE
f) on the right it dipped all the way too the dark gray wave
g) remember when I suspected collapse in december-january period?
h) that was because it looked like for a second that the blue wave would penetrate the dark gray wave (based on daily price action)
i) but that didn't happen and when I was sure that the blue wave would turn up
j) i had conviction then to go all-in on gold late january to feb
h) here's 12c again:
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i) in 12C post t's playing DEAD ON
j) but right now basically TOO SLOW FOR WHAT'S COMING LATE APRIL
j) but right now basically TOO SLOW FOR WHAT'S COMING LATE APRIL
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k) I titled it "2 DAYS LEFT FOR PERFECT ENTRY"
l) if I made a chart today I would title it "YOU MAY BE TOO LATE FOR PERFECT ENTRY"
m) or "16 HOURS LEFT FOR AN EXCELLENT ENTRY"
l) if I made a chart today I would title it "YOU MAY BE TOO LATE FOR PERFECT ENTRY"
m) or "16 HOURS LEFT FOR AN EXCELLENT ENTRY"
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n) so in the 1978 vs now comparision, the blue wave right now is OUT OF POSITION, IT'S LATE AND
o) it's 1/2 the red wave and it has to get back on top
p) when it does that, it's goes into "liquidity crisis formation" which is the 2019-2020 comparison here side by side:
o) it's 1/2 the red wave and it has to get back on top
p) when it does that, it's goes into "liquidity crisis formation" which is the 2019-2020 comparison here side by side:
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q) the best illustration for what happens is the 2019-2020 fractal
r) BUT IN 2019-2020 FRACTAL THE BLUE WAVE HIT RESISTANCE IN MARCH 2020
s) see on the left side now? red is now orange, and blue is now purple/or light navy
t) so?
u) where I marke YOU ARE HERE in 2019-2020 is in between the TWO TOPS for the current wave
v) but the BLUE WAVE RIGHT NOW, WILL BREAK RESISTANCE BEFORE COMING DOWN AGAIN
w) that means ALL OF THE PRICE ACTION IN THE BOX ON THE LEFT ...
x) must FIT INTO THE BOX THE RIGHT
r) BUT IN 2019-2020 FRACTAL THE BLUE WAVE HIT RESISTANCE IN MARCH 2020
s) see on the left side now? red is now orange, and blue is now purple/or light navy
t) so?
u) where I marke YOU ARE HERE in 2019-2020 is in between the TWO TOPS for the current wave
v) but the BLUE WAVE RIGHT NOW, WILL BREAK RESISTANCE BEFORE COMING DOWN AGAIN
w) that means ALL OF THE PRICE ACTION IN THE BOX ON THE LEFT ...
x) must FIT INTO THE BOX THE RIGHT
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Y) so... we have the 4/18 top as THE FIRST OF TWO BIG TOPS
Z) then retrace, then SECOND AND HIGHER TOP before collapsing into LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST (like gold tends to do in weak seasonality)
Z) then retrace, then SECOND AND HIGHER TOP before collapsing into LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST (like gold tends to do in weak seasonality)
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7) so that's base case because the the shape of that move must get squeezed
8) for that blue wave to get back in position like it did in 1978 comparison
9) HOW DO I KNOW IT WILL DO THAT??
10) that's what these were for:
8) for that blue wave to get back in position like it did in 1978 comparison
9) HOW DO I KNOW IT WILL DO THAT??
10) that's what these were for:
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10a) ok so, to find out if that blue wave will do what we expect it to do
b) ALL the regression lines in between MUST BE IN ORDER
c) the bottom right with the separate layers are 1/3 sized for ratio (not IRL it's 1/2)
d) the top right layer is the dark gray wave, it's ready to go
f) the bottom left is the light navy/purple (I can't tell im color blind)
g) that one is 90% ready
h) the top right chart is in "release mode"
b) ALL the regression lines in between MUST BE IN ORDER
c) the bottom right with the separate layers are 1/3 sized for ratio (not IRL it's 1/2)
d) the top right layer is the dark gray wave, it's ready to go
f) the bottom left is the light navy/purple (I can't tell im color blind)
g) that one is 90% ready
h) the top right chart is in "release mode"
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i) release mode is explained above in the chart w/ the H AND L markers
j) so?
k) I would NOT hold to 4/18
l) I would hold to 3/17, 18, 20, OR 21 when we get near 2140, we have to take money off the table
n) IT WILL RETRACE AT LEAST TO 2070 no matter how high it gets next Friday/Sunday 3/18-3/20)
j) so?
k) I would NOT hold to 4/18
l) I would hold to 3/17, 18, 20, OR 21 when we get near 2140, we have to take money off the table
n) IT WILL RETRACE AT LEAST TO 2070 no matter how high it gets next Friday/Sunday 3/18-3/20)
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UPDATE 6:40 PM ET SUNDAY NIGHT
1) 3RD ENTRY 30% 1971
2) 1 ENTRY FOR 40% LEFT, LOOKS LIKE GOING TO BE VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY
3) THINKING LIKE 2 OR 3 AM
4) STRATEGY RIGHT NOW?, HOLD TO 3/17 (THURSDAY) SELL AT 2135-2140
1) 3RD ENTRY 30% 1971
2) 1 ENTRY FOR 40% LEFT, LOOKS LIKE GOING TO BE VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY
3) THINKING LIKE 2 OR 3 AM
4) STRATEGY RIGHT NOW?, HOLD TO 3/17 (THURSDAY) SELL AT 2135-2140
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10:08 AM ET
1) LAST ENTRY 40% EXTREMELY LEVERAGED
2)STRATEGY MOVES TO 3/18, TARGETS SAME
1) LAST ENTRY 40% EXTREMELY LEVERAGED
2)STRATEGY MOVES TO 3/18, TARGETS SAME
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3) THAT WAS 1953
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I'M ON TO POST 15C EXIT STRATEGY:
