MQP 12M- ABOUT TIME MQP MAKE YOU REAL MONEY PART 7
HEADER - This continuation of part 6. This is the best part. Part 8 due next Friday is just exit and review (plus preparation for post FOMC run to 2200 by 04/13 and 2070 by 05/05). Links 1 to 6 are below.
SUMMARY - We are not even half way through to 03/01-03/02 2070-2100 high. Odds of 1873-1880 check-down (after NY open tomorrow) are high bc of confluence of reasoning. This should be the last chance for a decent entry. Price should hit all these boxes through next Friday. Don't have a lot of time so I'll keep this brief.
DETAILS - Notes in post 12L described action to now. It's 1897 at posting, floor tomorrow is 1873-1880 while ceiling is 1915-1928. From classical TA, that up trend line that's theoretically support now needs to be tested AGAIN because it failed 2 days ago. That is also where the GLD ETF gapped up from. Furthermore, the most similar regression sets all call for that to happen tomorrow (less similar sets from historical price action do not show that). I can't imagine gold moving to 2070 without closing that gap, but never say never. Again, I'm not trading in and out, just hold to 2070 or 02/25, which ever comes first. If I had to guess, I would guess NY open at under 1878 and close at 1928. From regressive-wave point of view, Friday will be the last day GOLD WILL BE PRICED UNDER 1900 EVER. Futures and international market still open even though NY closes on Monday, so price rises to 1950-1960 after Tuesday NY open. That means that the GLD gap up when it opens Tuesday needs to be closed on Wednesday before gold moves above 2000 by Thursday open. At this second, I gold should close NEXT WEEK at 2025-2040. I have March 2nd high at 2070-2110.
SUMMARY - We are not even half way through to 03/01-03/02 2070-2100 high. Odds of 1873-1880 check-down (after NY open tomorrow) are high bc of confluence of reasoning. This should be the last chance for a decent entry. Price should hit all these boxes through next Friday. Don't have a lot of time so I'll keep this brief.
DETAILS - Notes in post 12L described action to now. It's 1897 at posting, floor tomorrow is 1873-1880 while ceiling is 1915-1928. From classical TA, that up trend line that's theoretically support now needs to be tested AGAIN because it failed 2 days ago. That is also where the GLD ETF gapped up from. Furthermore, the most similar regression sets all call for that to happen tomorrow (less similar sets from historical price action do not show that). I can't imagine gold moving to 2070 without closing that gap, but never say never. Again, I'm not trading in and out, just hold to 2070 or 02/25, which ever comes first. If I had to guess, I would guess NY open at under 1878 and close at 1928. From regressive-wave point of view, Friday will be the last day GOLD WILL BE PRICED UNDER 1900 EVER. Futures and international market still open even though NY closes on Monday, so price rises to 1950-1960 after Tuesday NY open. That means that the GLD gap up when it opens Tuesday needs to be closed on Wednesday before gold moves above 2000 by Thursday open. At this second, I gold should close NEXT WEEK at 2025-2040. I have March 2nd high at 2070-2110.
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That's premarket Friday 2/18.
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REALLY IMPORTANT UPDATE 7:45 AM ET
IF WE HIT 1903 BEFORE 8:15AM ET (so in 30 min):
ODDS OF 1915 CLOSE 9 IN 10
ODDS OF 1928 CLOSE 8 IN 10
ODDS OF 1935 CLOSE 7 IN 10
ODDS OF 1950 CLOSE BETTER THAN A COIN FLIP, LESS THAN 60%.
IF WE HIT 1903 BEFORE 8:15AM ET (so in 30 min):
ODDS OF 1915 CLOSE 9 IN 10
ODDS OF 1928 CLOSE 8 IN 10
ODDS OF 1935 CLOSE 7 IN 10
ODDS OF 1950 CLOSE BETTER THAN A COIN FLIP, LESS THAN 60%.
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If we close higher than 1935, again "IF", this INCREASES ODDS OF HIGH VOL ON MON AND TUES. THE HIGHER THE CLOSE, THE MORE VOL WE WILL SEE BY NEXT WED NY OPEN.
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UPDATE 8:18 AM, MISSED THAT WINDOW,
SO BACK TO ORIGINAL 1915-1928 CLOSE, MY MONEY IS ON 1923.
SO BACK TO ORIGINAL 1915-1928 CLOSE, MY MONEY IS ON 1923.
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UPDATE 6.49 PM ET
Today's price action was fishy, but not out of bounds yet. Expectations for Tuesday high should still be 1955-ish. I will say that stalling at 1900 too long is a bad sign. We are 3 days late for 1915 in terms of maintaining bullish momentum.
Today's price action was fishy, but not out of bounds yet. Expectations for Tuesday high should still be 1955-ish. I will say that stalling at 1900 too long is a bad sign. We are 3 days late for 1915 in terms of maintaining bullish momentum.
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Not hitting 1915-1928 by the first hour into Monday (1 AM ET) is an uncomfortable signal for de-risking.
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UPDATE 7:30 PM
No, I still have 100% conviction I am right. But the trade has to extend to Tuesday 03/02. So strategy now is hold to 2100 or 03/02, whichever comes first. Why the change from 2070 and 2/25? This is the most llikely reason for price not being on time. What we have right now is 6 stacked layers of regressions that is the culmination of 600 live days (432 trading days) of regression spiral. You have dance with who brung ya. Hold to 2100 or 03/02, whichever comes first.
No, I still have 100% conviction I am right. But the trade has to extend to Tuesday 03/02. So strategy now is hold to 2100 or 03/02, whichever comes first. Why the change from 2070 and 2/25? This is the most llikely reason for price not being on time. What we have right now is 6 stacked layers of regressions that is the culmination of 600 live days (432 trading days) of regression spiral. You have dance with who brung ya. Hold to 2100 or 03/02, whichever comes first.
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UPDATE MONDAY 8:50 AM: This is my current 4-min bar chart.
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1) my targets have not changed I see 1928 next
2) I see a 1944 Tuesday close
3) I see 1950-1960 Tuesday night into Wednesday
4) while I still have 100% conviction, that conviction will start to change if ...
5) that first box does not get hit by 7pm ET today
6) I want to reiterate that all long and mediium terms continue to say that we hit 2070-2100 by 03/02
7) but the immediate curves (next 24-36) hours are not looking good
8) so why would I expect 1928 in 9 hours or so?
9) bc the curves from 60 hours to 400 days SAY THAT'S SUPPOSE TO BE WHAT HAPPENS HERE
10) sigh... we are getting really late to break above 1915 for these curves
11) meanwhile, I have no reason to expect this NOT TO happen
12) but it's also silly not to start thinking defensively
14) so I'll add notes 10 hours later
2) I see a 1944 Tuesday close
3) I see 1950-1960 Tuesday night into Wednesday
4) while I still have 100% conviction, that conviction will start to change if ...
5) that first box does not get hit by 7pm ET today
6) I want to reiterate that all long and mediium terms continue to say that we hit 2070-2100 by 03/02
7) but the immediate curves (next 24-36) hours are not looking good
8) so why would I expect 1928 in 9 hours or so?
9) bc the curves from 60 hours to 400 days SAY THAT'S SUPPOSE TO BE WHAT HAPPENS HERE
10) sigh... we are getting really late to break above 1915 for these curves
11) meanwhile, I have no reason to expect this NOT TO happen
12) but it's also silly not to start thinking defensively
14) so I'll add notes 10 hours later
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15) BTW, this doesn't mean that gold turns bearish
16) it just means that we would have to to plan for a "going nowhere for A WHILE" scenario, AND the unlikely but just in case ...
17) .. 2-way high vol swing (ultimately all the way up) scenario
18) at this point (9:22 AM) odds still favor 1928 today HEAVILY vs other 2 scenarios.
16) it just means that we would have to to plan for a "going nowhere for A WHILE" scenario, AND the unlikely but just in case ...
17) .. 2-way high vol swing (ultimately all the way up) scenario
18) at this point (9:22 AM) odds still favor 1928 today HEAVILY vs other 2 scenarios.
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UPDATE 11:13 AM ET
Frustrating? Yes. Couldnt get past 1915. So what now. Still 100% conviction 2070-2110 03/02?. In a word, yes. I just added my last insurance funds at 1896.xx this morning. Insurance funds were meant for unexpected drawdowns. I do NOT recommend this move for others, bc I dont know if you csn call 1914 to 1896 a "drawdown". I added bc I have more funds that have cleared that will serve for insurance going forward. That... is where I am at. If you have noticed, I have avoided discussions of geopolitics via Russia-Ukraine and supporting methodology like EW counts. This is bc it has hurt me excruciatingly at these specific moments in the past. There have been moments, in the past, when I was 100% convinced in my work but took experts advice via bond market, gold royalty companies, geopolitics, cross asset vol, elliot wave and etc... and it has taught me to stick with what I know that I know. So there is that. I dont have a bunch of time here for a new chart, so I just wanted to say I am still all-in long with intentions to hold to 03/02. That is all. Good luck.
Frustrating? Yes. Couldnt get past 1915. So what now. Still 100% conviction 2070-2110 03/02?. In a word, yes. I just added my last insurance funds at 1896.xx this morning. Insurance funds were meant for unexpected drawdowns. I do NOT recommend this move for others, bc I dont know if you csn call 1914 to 1896 a "drawdown". I added bc I have more funds that have cleared that will serve for insurance going forward. That... is where I am at. If you have noticed, I have avoided discussions of geopolitics via Russia-Ukraine and supporting methodology like EW counts. This is bc it has hurt me excruciatingly at these specific moments in the past. There have been moments, in the past, when I was 100% convinced in my work but took experts advice via bond market, gold royalty companies, geopolitics, cross asset vol, elliot wave and etc... and it has taught me to stick with what I know that I know. So there is that. I dont have a bunch of time here for a new chart, so I just wanted to say I am still all-in long with intentions to hold to 03/02. That is all. Good luck.
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(that was 11:13 AM ET tuesday 2/22)
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10:14 PM ET WED 2/23
Finally got to 1928. My thoughts? Obviously we are really late for 1928. Which changes things, but I don't even know how to handicap this. I have multiple signals. I may just end up ignoring them all and hold all my longs to 4/13-4/28 window. Why? I am tired of dealing with zig zags and constantly-changing price/date targets. The only thing I can say with total confidence now is we will get to 2110-2140 before May. The problem with this is I can't even say it won't happen next week. I wouldn't be surprised if we do hit that next week either.
Finally got to 1928. My thoughts? Obviously we are really late for 1928. Which changes things, but I don't even know how to handicap this. I have multiple signals. I may just end up ignoring them all and hold all my longs to 4/13-4/28 window. Why? I am tired of dealing with zig zags and constantly-changing price/date targets. The only thing I can say with total confidence now is we will get to 2110-2140 before May. The problem with this is I can't even say it won't happen next week. I wouldn't be surprised if we do hit that next week either.
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10:27 PM ET WED 2/23
To be clear about my change of tone -- price action since 2/17 (including tonight's spike to what looks like 1931+ in futures) is actually pointing to sideways consolidation in terms of price patterns. Meanwhile, my long and intermediate regressions still say SKY HIGH NOW!. But, they HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT FOR 10 DAYS. This is what I mean by "not knowing how to handicap this". I am still massively long. I just don't know when to take money off the table. I DO KNOW THAT WE SHOULD CLEAR 2110-2140 BY 4/28 IN ALL SCENARIOS I CAN PROJECT.
To be clear about my change of tone -- price action since 2/17 (including tonight's spike to what looks like 1931+ in futures) is actually pointing to sideways consolidation in terms of price patterns. Meanwhile, my long and intermediate regressions still say SKY HIGH NOW!. But, they HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT FOR 10 DAYS. This is what I mean by "not knowing how to handicap this". I am still massively long. I just don't know when to take money off the table. I DO KNOW THAT WE SHOULD CLEAR 2110-2140 BY 4/28 IN ALL SCENARIOS I CAN PROJECT.
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10:33 PM ET WED 2/23
On a side note, my personal life is getting disorganized. So I have to take some time off to get things in order. The only thing I can promise going forward is, I will post a note here to notify iF AND WHEN I EXIT MY LONGS. That's all, good luck!
On a side note, my personal life is getting disorganized. So I have to take some time off to get things in order. The only thing I can promise going forward is, I will post a note here to notify iF AND WHEN I EXIT MY LONGS. That's all, good luck!
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11:45 PM ET WED 2/23
Just saw gold tag 1948 minutes ago. What does that mean now? That just killed "sideways city scenario".
Just saw gold tag 1948 minutes ago. What does that mean now? That just killed "sideways city scenario".
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UPDATE 8:50 AM ET PREMARKET THURSDAY 2/24 AT 1858
THIS IS IMPORTANT!
Throughout my last 6 years, a most depressing moment came 2-3 months a go when I a lost a follower bc I wasn't being thorough enough in explaining my methodology. I felt really bad about this bc I couldnt tell him what I was seeing ALL OF THE TIME.
My methodology is not meant for trading regularly or really at all. My methodology is actually meant for 3 to maybe 4 trades per year AT THE MOST. Optimally, just 1 - 2. It is designed for waiting for when every technical is in your favor and using extreme leverage to make it worth the wait. And the most difficult part is the wait and knowing HOW MUCH TO WAIT. The perfect trades generally take 100 days and DO NOT REQUIRE UPDATES ALL THE TIME BC IT IS SIMPLY BUY AND HOLD.
The part I can't decide for you (BC ONLY YOU CAN) is exit and re-entry IF YOU ARE NOT BENT ON HOLDING ALL THE WAY. SO HERE IS WHAT I KNOW:
1) we just had a 24-hour period featuring 1888 to 1973
2) as I've stated in the past 6 posts, when high vol happens, it cuts both ways
3) meaning I wouldn't be surprised to see 1910 again w/in 24 HOURS
4) BUT I also wouldn't be surprised to see 2040 w/in 24 HOURS
5) NO amount of technical work can keep up with minute-to-minute market swings
6) hence strategy must be worked out BEFORE THESE SITUATIONS
7) I've stated in the last few days that I am holding to 03/02 or 2100 whichever comes first
8) I've also stated that I MAY JUST HOLD TO 4/28 or 2110-2140 (2270 still on the table depending on price action THROUGH 03/04)
9) this is bc I CAN'T BE WATCHING GOLD ALL THE TIME, I HAVE TO SLEEP
10) WHAT I AM COMPLETELY SURE OF IS 2100 bare minimum by 4/28
11) and if you can afford to wait for 2100, it's coming by 4/28
12) that's all
THIS IS IMPORTANT!
Throughout my last 6 years, a most depressing moment came 2-3 months a go when I a lost a follower bc I wasn't being thorough enough in explaining my methodology. I felt really bad about this bc I couldnt tell him what I was seeing ALL OF THE TIME.
My methodology is not meant for trading regularly or really at all. My methodology is actually meant for 3 to maybe 4 trades per year AT THE MOST. Optimally, just 1 - 2. It is designed for waiting for when every technical is in your favor and using extreme leverage to make it worth the wait. And the most difficult part is the wait and knowing HOW MUCH TO WAIT. The perfect trades generally take 100 days and DO NOT REQUIRE UPDATES ALL THE TIME BC IT IS SIMPLY BUY AND HOLD.
The part I can't decide for you (BC ONLY YOU CAN) is exit and re-entry IF YOU ARE NOT BENT ON HOLDING ALL THE WAY. SO HERE IS WHAT I KNOW:
1) we just had a 24-hour period featuring 1888 to 1973
2) as I've stated in the past 6 posts, when high vol happens, it cuts both ways
3) meaning I wouldn't be surprised to see 1910 again w/in 24 HOURS
4) BUT I also wouldn't be surprised to see 2040 w/in 24 HOURS
5) NO amount of technical work can keep up with minute-to-minute market swings
6) hence strategy must be worked out BEFORE THESE SITUATIONS
7) I've stated in the last few days that I am holding to 03/02 or 2100 whichever comes first
8) I've also stated that I MAY JUST HOLD TO 4/28 or 2110-2140 (2270 still on the table depending on price action THROUGH 03/04)
9) this is bc I CAN'T BE WATCHING GOLD ALL THE TIME, I HAVE TO SLEEP
10) WHAT I AM COMPLETELY SURE OF IS 2100 bare minimum by 4/28
11) and if you can afford to wait for 2100, it's coming by 4/28
12) that's all
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14) ... as of LAST NIGHT'S INTERMEDIATE REGRESSIONS, 2270 STILL ON THE TABLE FOR 4/28
15) PRICE ACTION FROM HERE TO 3/14 OBVIOUSLY CRITICAL IN TERMS OF WHAT HIGH WE GET
15) PRICE ACTION FROM HERE TO 3/14 OBVIOUSLY CRITICAL IN TERMS OF WHAT HIGH WE GET
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UPDATE 11:02 AM ET THURSDAY 2/24
1) as stated in note "3)" moments ago, wouldn't be surprised to see 1910
2) the sooner the better for the spike down
3) price action from now through 03/02 New York close is very critical for levels above 2040 to be tagged next week
4) expectations now is for 1975 to GET HIT AGAIN IN 24 HOURS OR LESS
5) if we break 1975 again in 24 hours, but PREFERABLY BY 2-AM TOMORROW NIGHT ET, THEN 2040-2100 is THE TARGET FOR NEXT WEEK LIKELY ON 03/02
1) as stated in note "3)" moments ago, wouldn't be surprised to see 1910
2) the sooner the better for the spike down
3) price action from now through 03/02 New York close is very critical for levels above 2040 to be tagged next week
4) expectations now is for 1975 to GET HIT AGAIN IN 24 HOURS OR LESS
5) if we break 1975 again in 24 hours, but PREFERABLY BY 2-AM TOMORROW NIGHT ET, THEN 2040-2100 is THE TARGET FOR NEXT WEEK LIKELY ON 03/02
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6) current expectations is for 2040-2070 ON 03/02 WHICH IS NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTER ADP JOBS REPORT
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UPDATE 12:50 PM ET THURSDAY 2/24
1) replay part 2 here:
2) I don't have time to make a new chart, but if you look at price action forecasted in PART 2 FOR 8 DAYS AGO, THAT'S WHAT WE ARE GETTING NOW
3) THAT SPIKE TO 1980 AND DROP TO 1910 FOLLOWED BY STAIRCASE UP AND MOVE TO 2100
4) I don't know if we get 2100 by 03/02
5) but basically this part was forecasted too early due to intermediate curves not yet in order
6) they are still not yet in order for 2100
7) but I think we have enough to clear 2040 by 03/02
1) replay part 2 here:
3) THAT SPIKE TO 1980 AND DROP TO 1910 FOLLOWED BY STAIRCASE UP AND MOVE TO 2100
4) I don't know if we get 2100 by 03/02
5) but basically this part was forecasted too early due to intermediate curves not yet in order
6) they are still not yet in order for 2100
7) but I think we have enough to clear 2040 by 03/02
関連のアイデア
Looks like 1886 was the low premarket. All regressions pointing up now. Odds of low after open less than 1 in 5. Odds of 1935 close today is about coin flip. Odds of 1950 close 1 in 3.