Gold bears looking for a discount (Update 3)
Hey guys,
All looking great in goldyland and we are well underway to my 1875 target I mentioned last week, it is within reaching distance. I can almost smell it.
A fantastic weekly close 1833+ was needed to confirm 1875, and that is exactly what gold did, leaving us with a 'Three Inside Up' breakout pattern on the daily chart and a break of the Weekly 50 SMA. Bulls are in full control of the situation.
The coming week is a quiet one on the datafront, so it will mostly be technical trading with a lack of catalysts. Traders and investors will be looking forward to the FOMC minutes as they want to know if there are any clues of the accomodative policy of the FED.
The FED downplayed inflation fears on Thursday after the strong CPI numbers, so I am not seeing any surprises from the FOMC minutes. They will likely be the catalyst to push the goldprice above 1850 towards 1855 on Wednesday, some strong profit taking after towards 1800 (same setup as March FOMC to 1755 with stronger profit taking after). The COT is extremely bullish this week with a net long position increase of +22k contracts.
I expect another ranging week ahead before the 1850 break, to take out supply from the 1850 supply zone. A slow start on Monday and Tuesday and another test of 1820 targeting 1855 with a possible extension to 1860. 1855-1860 should trigger the bearish divergence back to 1800. A daily close 1850+ (preferably 1855+ above the daily 200 SMA) would accelerate the buying towards 1875 pushed by bearish SL's being eaten.
The DXY closed the week with a bull doji and a daily bullish divergence which is a buy signal to retest 91.5 (Daily 50 SMA), so caution is needed with buying gold at this price. Next to this the 10Y Yields broke the daily bullflag targeting 2.3%. Selling gold in an inflationary environment however remains a bad idea, with FOMC not changing course on their accomodative policy in the foreseeable future.
Keep an eye on US30, as I expect a strong sell-off from 36k. This can be bullish for gold in the beginning, but if the sell-off continues below 30k, this could drag gold all the way down back to 1600.
Love and hugs,
Cesaro
All looking great in goldyland and we are well underway to my 1875 target I mentioned last week, it is within reaching distance. I can almost smell it.
A fantastic weekly close 1833+ was needed to confirm 1875, and that is exactly what gold did, leaving us with a 'Three Inside Up' breakout pattern on the daily chart and a break of the Weekly 50 SMA. Bulls are in full control of the situation.
The coming week is a quiet one on the datafront, so it will mostly be technical trading with a lack of catalysts. Traders and investors will be looking forward to the FOMC minutes as they want to know if there are any clues of the accomodative policy of the FED.
The FED downplayed inflation fears on Thursday after the strong CPI numbers, so I am not seeing any surprises from the FOMC minutes. They will likely be the catalyst to push the goldprice above 1850 towards 1855 on Wednesday, some strong profit taking after towards 1800 (same setup as March FOMC to 1755 with stronger profit taking after). The COT is extremely bullish this week with a net long position increase of +22k contracts.
I expect another ranging week ahead before the 1850 break, to take out supply from the 1850 supply zone. A slow start on Monday and Tuesday and another test of 1820 targeting 1855 with a possible extension to 1860. 1855-1860 should trigger the bearish divergence back to 1800. A daily close 1850+ (preferably 1855+ above the daily 200 SMA) would accelerate the buying towards 1875 pushed by bearish SL's being eaten.
The DXY closed the week with a bull doji and a daily bullish divergence which is a buy signal to retest 91.5 (Daily 50 SMA), so caution is needed with buying gold at this price. Next to this the 10Y Yields broke the daily bullflag targeting 2.3%. Selling gold in an inflationary environment however remains a bad idea, with FOMC not changing course on their accomodative policy in the foreseeable future.
Keep an eye on US30, as I expect a strong sell-off from 36k. This can be bullish for gold in the beginning, but if the sell-off continues below 30k, this could drag gold all the way down back to 1600.
Love and hugs,
Cesaro
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