HEADER - I've exitted 2059. Waiting to get SHORT W/IN HOURS.
SUMMARY - This is the same background as the last chart, 12R, but with a little edit for this TACTICAL SHORT. This trade lasts a A MINIMUM OF 36 HOURS AS A MAXIMUM OF 5 TRADING SESSIONS (1 week from now).
DETAILS - Most recent posts are below. Check out 12O, looked really good. This is the same chart as 12R. So now gold needs to decide to go to blue "E" or red "D2".
SUMMARY - This is the same background as the last chart, 12R, but with a little edit for this TACTICAL SHORT. This trade lasts a A MINIMUM OF 36 HOURS AS A MAXIMUM OF 5 TRADING SESSIONS (1 week from now).
DETAILS - Most recent posts are below. Check out 12O, looked really good. This is the same chart as 12R. So now gold needs to decide to go to blue "E" or red "D2".
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NOTES - If you went long with me end of January, short here. I HAVE STRONG CONVICTION IN THIS SHORT, THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHAT'S YOUR ENTRY. 2060 right now isn't bad.
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UPDATE 11:25 AM ET.
1) I'm in short 2060.
2) odds of hitting 2071 is still there, odds of NOT HITTING AND GOING STRAIGHT DOWN is real
3) this is my first of 2 entries
1) I'm in short 2060.
2) odds of hitting 2071 is still there, odds of NOT HITTING AND GOING STRAIGHT DOWN is real
3) this is my first of 2 entries
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UPDATE 11:43 AM ET
4) It may not do anything until Friday morning (literally just sits there at 2060)
5) but odds favor a move down sooner than later, hence half my entry now
6) be patient until Friday morning
4) It may not do anything until Friday morning (literally just sits there at 2060)
5) but odds favor a move down sooner than later, hence half my entry now
6) be patient until Friday morning
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7) IN BOTH RED OR BLUE SCENARIOS WE take money off the table at RED E OR BLUE E
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8) FWIW, IVO (infinite volume oscillator favors red route right now)
9) red route is basically a slow drift down for about 60 hours and then
10) drops off the cliff on FRIDAY
9) red route is basically a slow drift down for about 60 hours and then
10) drops off the cliff on FRIDAY
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UPDATE 12 NOON
1) second entry short 2069.xx
2) now we wait and wait
1) second entry short 2069.xx
2) now we wait and wait
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UPDATE 12:16 PM TUESDAY
1) just flashed move from 2069 to 2042
2) I think top is in
3) just a matter of reaction at 2028 here:
1) just flashed move from 2069 to 2042
2) I think top is in
3) just a matter of reaction at 2028 here:
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4) there's 3 lines that need to break for this trade
5) chart above shows first line about to hit soon
5) chart above shows first line about to hit soon
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12:23 PM
1) first reaction at 2030 seems solid, if this doesn't give in 24 hours it's red 3:1 over blue
2) that's all for now, good luck
1) first reaction at 2030 seems solid, if this doesn't give in 24 hours it's red 3:1 over blue
2) that's all for now, good luck
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12:38 PM
1) tagged 2022, that's really fast
2) raw curves say FIRST STOP IS 1993
3) so take money off the table if you see 1995 soon, I mean that's a lot already, IT WILL TAKE A BREAK
1) tagged 2022, that's really fast
2) raw curves say FIRST STOP IS 1993
3) so take money off the table if you see 1995 soon, I mean that's a lot already, IT WILL TAKE A BREAK
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12:46 PM
4) I mis-read the curves, it's 1987 NOT 1993
5) should get it done by 3PM ET
4) I mis-read the curves, it's 1987 NOT 1993
5) should get it done by 3PM ET
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6) If so I AM GOING TO COVER BECAUSE THAT'S A LOT OF MONEY IN 3 HOURS
7) who cares what ti does next
7) who cares what ti does next
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UPDATE 1 PM ET
1) so gold's favored to to 1987 this afternoon
2) IF SO, then BLUE ROUTE would be favorite 2:1
3) IF 1928 doesn't break convincingly, it's still red route 3:2.
1) so gold's favored to to 1987 this afternoon
2) IF SO, then BLUE ROUTE would be favorite 2:1
3) IF 1928 doesn't break convincingly, it's still red route 3:2.
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1:12 PM
In the chart with the 3 lines above, IT'S THE THIRD LINE WHERE THE SERIOUS BOUNCE WILL COME 1987-1990. If I see 1990, I'm calling it a day. IT WILL BOUNCE, IT WON'T GO STRAGIHT DOWN!
In the chart with the 3 lines above, IT'S THE THIRD LINE WHERE THE SERIOUS BOUNCE WILL COME 1987-1990. If I see 1990, I'm calling it a day. IT WILL BOUNCE, IT WON'T GO STRAGIHT DOWN!
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2:06 PM
1) looks like gold's not quite dead, nice bounce to 2050+, now 2039
2) now what?
3) wait and wait, and wait, and wait
4) it's gonna be a slower death, but 1935-1940 is the floor, that's another 100 down!
1) looks like gold's not quite dead, nice bounce to 2050+, now 2039
2) now what?
3) wait and wait, and wait, and wait
4) it's gonna be a slower death, but 1935-1940 is the floor, that's another 100 down!
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6:16 PM UPDATE AND WARNING
1) here's what i see next 30 hours
1) here's what i see next 30 hours
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2) weak zones are at A (before midnight), C (before noon tomorrow), and D (midnight tomorrow)
3) some strength at B, probably about 1943
4) YOU MUS EXIT BY C OR D
5) why?
6) because I am pickup strength for FRIDAY that may change the picture
7) as it stands, i still see 1935 or 1940 by TUESDAY 3/15
8) but prices DON'T MOVE IN A STRAIGHT LINE
9) so IF YOU ARE SHORT, YOU MUST EXIT BY 1 AM ET THURSDAY
3) some strength at B, probably about 1943
4) YOU MUS EXIT BY C OR D
5) why?
6) because I am pickup strength for FRIDAY that may change the picture
7) as it stands, i still see 1935 or 1940 by TUESDAY 3/15
8) but prices DON'T MOVE IN A STRAIGHT LINE
9) so IF YOU ARE SHORT, YOU MUST EXIT BY 1 AM ET THURSDAY
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10) what I basically see right now is a run from 1890 to 2070 AGAIN BY END OF FRIDAY
11) AND THEN MONDAY-TUESDAY DROP TO 1940
12) it is what it is
13) please watch out
11) AND THEN MONDAY-TUESDAY DROP TO 1940
12) it is what it is
13) please watch out
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****TYPO AT 10) 1980 NOT 1890
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8:04 PM ET 2036.50
1) what I've learned during the last couple of months is that my software works
2) BUT it needs to be watched cosnstantly unless you're in for a month or two
3) I just covered bc I don't want to watch it anymore
4) my intention is to re-short at B, it'll be a bigger move worth the time
5 good night, floor whould be 1226 before it moves up around midnight
1) what I've learned during the last couple of months is that my software works
2) BUT it needs to be watched cosnstantly unless you're in for a month or two
3) I just covered bc I don't want to watch it anymore
4) my intention is to re-short at B, it'll be a bigger move worth the time
5 good night, floor whould be 1226 before it moves up around midnight
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UPDATE 6:54 AM ET
1) I re-entried short last night
2) didn't have time to post'
3) WE ARE AT C in chart above right now
4) time to take money off the table and WAIT
1) I re-entried short last night
2) didn't have time to post'
3) WE ARE AT C in chart above right now
4) time to take money off the table and WAIT
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5) if you are watching it all the time, I think it can drop a little more
6) I still see 1993 before it's do dropping this morning
7) but I don't have time to watch
6) I still see 1993 before it's do dropping this morning
7) but I don't have time to watch
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UPDATE 7:45 AM ET
1) I'm back in
2) the reason I have to becareful when I'm not watching is this is a counter-trend move
3) Gold is only bearish at most through Tuesday morning 3/15
1) I'm back in
2) the reason I have to becareful when I'm not watching is this is a counter-trend move
3) Gold is only bearish at most through Tuesday morning 3/15
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7:56 AM ET
1) This next drop IS DECISIVE whether we get BLUE OR RED.
2) Right this second blue is favored 55-45 .
3) We have to cover shorts soon, I think 1983 is on the table but I am not convinced yet.
1) This next drop IS DECISIVE whether we get BLUE OR RED.
2) Right this second blue is favored 55-45 .
3) We have to cover shorts soon, I think 1983 is on the table but I am not convinced yet.
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8:11 AM ET
1) 1978 is on the table
2) but please understand short term moves are HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE'
3) they can change in minutes 1 minute literally
4) but most of the time it's more like 12 minutes
1) 1978 is on the table
2) but please understand short term moves are HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE'
3) they can change in minutes 1 minute literally
4) but most of the time it's more like 12 minutes
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8:21
1) just like that it's over
2) I covered AT 2003
1) just like that it's over
2) I covered AT 2003
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8:27
3) kept dropping to 1990
4) regressions are out of position for bears on 1minute bars
5) I would cover if you haven't
3) kept dropping to 1990
4) regressions are out of position for bears on 1minute bars
5) I would cover if you haven't
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8:50
1) bearish again, but I'm not in
2) it looks like 1979-1985 before it's done
3) but again, it can pop 30 anytime, so I don't want to deal with it
1) bearish again, but I'm not in
2) it looks like 1979-1985 before it's done
3) but again, it can pop 30 anytime, so I don't want to deal with it
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9:06 PM
1) 1986 now
2) blue route now almost 2:1 favorite (but this is deceving)
3) because we dont know what the intermediate swing up is going to look like
4) last night I said to cover by 1 AM tomorrow morning, and I still feel that way
5) wow, just dropped to 1977 as I am writing this
6) that has to be some kind of floor right now... gotta look
1) 1986 now
2) blue route now almost 2:1 favorite (but this is deceving)
3) because we dont know what the intermediate swing up is going to look like
4) last night I said to cover by 1 AM tomorrow morning, and I still feel that way
5) wow, just dropped to 1977 as I am writing this
6) that has to be some kind of floor right now... gotta look
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9:15 AM ET 1992 from 1976
1) pretty sure that's the low FOR NOW
2) so if you look at chart I posted at 6:16 pm (on this page), we are at C for sure
3) now moving to a relative high AT U.S. CLOSE
4) then drop to D right before MIDNIGHT
5) the conditions RIGHT THIS SECOND STRONGLY IMPLIES we're on blue route
6) AND A FASTER VERSION OF BLUE ROUTE
7) meaning after this incoming bounce, we head to 1935-1940 and this whole idea will be complete
1) pretty sure that's the low FOR NOW
2) so if you look at chart I posted at 6:16 pm (on this page), we are at C for sure
3) now moving to a relative high AT U.S. CLOSE
4) then drop to D right before MIDNIGHT
5) the conditions RIGHT THIS SECOND STRONGLY IMPLIES we're on blue route
6) AND A FASTER VERSION OF BLUE ROUTE
7) meaning after this incoming bounce, we head to 1935-1940 and this whole idea will be complete
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8) HOWEVER, odds of red route IS STILL 1 IN 3
9) we won't know for sure until later
9) we won't know for sure until later
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10) speaking of spike 30, it spiked 22 in like 9 minutes
11) I can't watch that while I drive the kids to school so it is what is
11) I can't watch that while I drive the kids to school so it is what is
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10:17 AM ET
1) 1996 now, but regressions say it goes to 1979 AGAIN before moving to the high
2) which NOW LOOKS LIKE 8:00 PM ET
3) there's two ceilings 2012 and 2032-2038'
4) 2030s do seem high, but that's what the regressions say right now
5) it is saying the first celing will not hold
6) furthermore the drop after that will take us through NOON OF THURSDAY
7) it STILL SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW YET
8) that's where we are at right now
9) after Thursday morning one more weak spike, and one more drift down
10) THE LOW looks like MONDAY RIGHT NOW
1) 1996 now, but regressions say it goes to 1979 AGAIN before moving to the high
2) which NOW LOOKS LIKE 8:00 PM ET
3) there's two ceilings 2012 and 2032-2038'
4) 2030s do seem high, but that's what the regressions say right now
5) it is saying the first celing will not hold
6) furthermore the drop after that will take us through NOON OF THURSDAY
7) it STILL SHOULD NOT BE THE LOW YET
8) that's where we are at right now
9) after Thursday morning one more weak spike, and one more drift down
10) THE LOW looks like MONDAY RIGHT NOW
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BTW - The reason I say "right now" a lot is because things can AND DO CHANGE ALL THE TIME.
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11:23 AM ET 2000, looks like we are going to 2020 now.
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12:25 PM
1) If bulls don't show up to stop this fall since 2005 to 1990, gold's going down HARD AND NOW
1) If bulls don't show up to stop this fall since 2005 to 1990, gold's going down HARD AND NOW
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12:43 PM ET
2) it's aiming for 1960 right now, and soon
3) if so , I am covering at 1963
2) it's aiming for 1960 right now, and soon
3) if so , I am covering at 1963
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4) this makes me concerned for gold's LONGER TERM picture
5) I noted w/in the last 3 posts we can get 140 drop in 36 hours, we might something very clost to that
5) I noted w/in the last 3 posts we can get 140 drop in 36 hours, we might something very clost to that
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**might get something very close to that
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1:06 PM
1986. I covered again. Can't tell if I'm missing blindspots.
1986. I covered again. Can't tell if I'm missing blindspots.
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1:23 PM
1) 1 blind spot found
2) we are going to 1962
3) but it's going to be annoying staircase
4) it's a day for me
5) good luck w all
1) 1 blind spot found
2) we are going to 1962
3) but it's going to be annoying staircase
4) it's a day for me
5) good luck w all
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6) forgot got say bottom of staircaise is 1954
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BIG UPDATE FOR APRIL
1) the last time I spot liquidity crisis pattern didn't play
2) I see a giant one coming
3) this WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT THERE'S AN OUTSIDE SHOT WE GET 24XX IN APRIL
4) IF SO, it will perfect liquidity crisis pattern
1) the last time I spot liquidity crisis pattern didn't play
2) I see a giant one coming
3) this WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT THERE'S AN OUTSIDE SHOT WE GET 24XX IN APRIL
4) IF SO, it will perfect liquidity crisis pattern
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3PM ET looks like sideways w/ 2010 CEILING FOR 16 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY COLLAPSE.
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3:48 PM As soon as we finish this tomorrow (or Thurs/Fri if it's a slow drift AND RIGHT NOW IT'S NOT), this is where we go next:
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5:18 PM AFTERMARKET UPDATE
1) the following is high confidence:
2) ceiling 2005-2010 before 9 PM ET
3) should tag 1934-1948 BY 3 AM ET'
4) follow by dead cat bounce near 1960 (this number is no dependable right now)
5) low should be 1-4PM ET 1925-1935, under 1933 is probably unlikely
1) the following is high confidence:
2) ceiling 2005-2010 before 9 PM ET
3) should tag 1934-1948 BY 3 AM ET'
4) follow by dead cat bounce near 1960 (this number is no dependable right now)
5) low should be 1-4PM ET 1925-1935, under 1933 is probably unlikely
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6) 5:43 PM, my buddy jgaldon has reminded me to watch for 1933 breaking
7) this would occur over night as well
8) in this scenario it can straight to 1880 ...sigh
9) that would change things A BIT for 15A forecast, in which I will post 15B
7) this would occur over night as well
8) in this scenario it can straight to 1880 ...sigh
9) that would change things A BIT for 15A forecast, in which I will post 15B
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8:05 PM ET 1973
1) it's obviously moving faster than anticipated
2) reaction at 1950 is important
3) if there is a pause, that's a decent sign 1933 is safe
4) if there IS NO PAUSE AND IT GOES STRAIGHT THROUGH to 1942, then we have to start worrying about 1933 holding
5) I DO NOT anticipate 1933 failing right now, but IT IS MOVING REALLY FAST, IT COULD HAPPEN
1) it's obviously moving faster than anticipated
2) reaction at 1950 is important
3) if there is a pause, that's a decent sign 1933 is safe
4) if there IS NO PAUSE AND IT GOES STRAIGHT THROUGH to 1942, then we have to start worrying about 1933 holding
5) I DO NOT anticipate 1933 failing right now, but IT IS MOVING REALLY FAST, IT COULD HAPPEN
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11:33 PM ET
1) I covered at 1776 because I am annoyed at price action
2) don't know what the hell it's going to do
3) I know it will get to 1935-1940 by Tuesday, that I know
1) I covered at 1776 because I am annoyed at price action
2) don't know what the hell it's going to do
3) I know it will get to 1935-1940 by Tuesday, that I know
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12:12 AM ET THURS
1) I have conviction it's going to 1940, but I can't stay up and watch
2) so I am in with a delevered position and a hard stop 1985
3) set my alarm clock for 3:30 am ET
4) see ya in the morning
1) I have conviction it's going to 1940, but I can't stay up and watch
2) so I am in with a delevered position and a hard stop 1985
3) set my alarm clock for 3:30 am ET
4) see ya in the morning
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7:25 AM ET
1) stopped out last night, re-entry short 2002 stop at 2012
2) odds say raise the floor to 1940 maybe 1945
3) expectations for next drop to end 8pm to migdnight tonight
1) stopped out last night, re-entry short 2002 stop at 2012
2) odds say raise the floor to 1940 maybe 1945
3) expectations for next drop to end 8pm to migdnight tonight
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7:38 AM ET
4) closed early at 2007.34
5) momentum for bulls still going another 80 minute
6) will wait til then
4) closed early at 2007.34
5) momentum for bulls still going another 80 minute
6) will wait til then
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8:47 AM ET
1) reentry 2006, hold short until 10 AM ET tomorrow or until further notice
2) the pattern has changed a bit, so the drop I am looking for moved forward 16 hours to 9 am tomorrow
1) reentry 2006, hold short until 10 AM ET tomorrow or until further notice
2) the pattern has changed a bit, so the drop I am looking for moved forward 16 hours to 9 am tomorrow
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10:21 AM ET
1) covered 1986 end of flag pattern
2) it's gonna bounce again before coming down
1) covered 1986 end of flag pattern
2) it's gonna bounce again before coming down
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12:28 PM ET
1) it's 2000 righ tnow
2) it will push 2010 again AND FAIL in the afternoon'
3) it will push 2010 again A THIRD TIME, creating a A TRIPPLE TOP
4) I will short it at the third top probably tonight before midnight
1) it's 2000 righ tnow
2) it will push 2010 again AND FAIL in the afternoon'
3) it will push 2010 again A THIRD TIME, creating a A TRIPPLE TOP
4) I will short it at the third top probably tonight before midnight
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3:12 PM ET
1) we have two tops now, waiting on a third
2) volume cycles for the third top says it should be 9 PM ET'
3) and that should be all she wrote
1) we have two tops now, waiting on a third
2) volume cycles for the third top says it should be 9 PM ET'
3) and that should be all she wrote
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4:19 PM ET AFTERMARKET 1996.33
1) I'm short since third top 2002-2003
2) is that top final?
3) odds favor that it is
1) I'm short since third top 2002-2003
2) is that top final?
3) odds favor that it is
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1:16 AM ET FRI, 1984.55
1) I just covered at 1983, I'm happy with the trade
2) going to bed, I have a small position that i'll just let ride into the morning
3) I see a staircase down from here with 1970, 1960, and 1950 respectively all the way to noon Friday
4) basically a lot of zig zag to the bottom
5) good luck with your exit
1) I just covered at 1983, I'm happy with the trade
2) going to bed, I have a small position that i'll just let ride into the morning
3) I see a staircase down from here with 1970, 1960, and 1950 respectively all the way to noon Friday
4) basically a lot of zig zag to the bottom
5) good luck with your exit
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3 AM ET FRI
1) woke up and checked on price action
2) where it just spiked to 1992 from 1982, THAT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN
3) so this idea is NOW DEAD
4) I just bought MARCH 25 2000 GC calls (futures options) as insurance so I can go to bed w/o thinking about it
5) the reason is I have 3 different signals that THE BOTTOM IS IN AND IT WAS 1970
6) that means we just did the first 1-2 for the rally to 2160 (which now could be higher)
7) so that's it for this short, now I am on post 15A
1) woke up and checked on price action
2) where it just spiked to 1992 from 1982, THAT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN
3) so this idea is NOW DEAD
4) I just bought MARCH 25 2000 GC calls (futures options) as insurance so I can go to bed w/o thinking about it
5) the reason is I have 3 different signals that THE BOTTOM IS IN AND IT WAS 1970
6) that means we just did the first 1-2 for the rally to 2160 (which now could be higher)
7) so that's it for this short, now I am on post 15A
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