Gold pullback to 1957 before resuming towards 2010.

2023年11月23日

The price of gold (XAU/USD) experienced a slight retreat after approaching the $2,000 level, stabilizing just above $1,990 with modest gains, supported by a weaker US dollar. Further movements beyond $2,001 may face resistance around $2,006, but a breakthrough of $2,008-2,011 or the October peak would be positive for bullish traders, pushing the price towards $2,021 and then $2,038. On the contrary, the $1,987-1,985 zone protects the downside, with support levels at $1,977-1,975 and $1,963. Failure to defend these levels could trigger technical selling, leading the price towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average ($1,938) and the confluence of 50 and 100-day SMAs ($1,931-1,933), favoring bearish traders. In the fundamental context, gold records modest gains but remains below $2,000, requiring caution due to difficulties near $2,015. The Federal Reserve (Fed) does not foresee interest rate hikes, maintaining support for gold, with a probability of a 50% rate cut in the April 30-May 1, 2024 meeting, influencing the dollar and favoring gold. Personally, I expect gold to reach the $1957 level; my view is short in the H4 timeframe, anticipating a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict and position unwinding by traders, resulting in a price decline or a slight retracement before resuming a long trend. Have a good day, everyone.