XBTUSD H1 chart (8/2/2019)
アップデート済
Good morning, traders. Bitcoin hit a high of $10580 over night. This is still about $200 lower than my target from yesterday and price is starting to show signs of fatigue as it stalls at the H1 and H12 HVNs, just above the R1 pivot. The H4 RSI and Stoch RSI are overbought, however the H1 RSI is dropping back under overbought with a Stoch that is just now trying to push out of oversold. This gives price a bit of room to move up before a bigger pullback is seen on the H4. The green H1 supply zone, just above price, remains my immediate target, with the green zone above that as a secondary target. I expect to see an initial retracement toward the orange zone at $10200-$10300, potentially confirming that possible ascending channel, if price is rejected at the initial target. I will consider continuation to the downside if price drops below the pivot at $9770. Until then, the assumption is a pullback before pressing higher toward the EQ of the upper blue zone near $11580.
On the off-chance that strong demand suddenly appears, which I don't expect at this time, and sends price through the channel resistance and secondary target, then my expectation is for rejection at the R2 pivot at the bottom of the blue zone. In this scenario, I would expect to see a pullback toward $10800-$10850 before price heads higher. As always, these are rough estimates based on current charts, but I continually update my thoughts throughout the day for our premium Discord members.
The H12 is printing a TD 9 sell signal, with a topped out Stoch RSI, increasing the odds that we will see a pullback happening sooner rather than later. However, that candle has more than 10 hours remaining until close. The H12 RSI is also printing hidden bearish divergence, but this will be invalidated if price moves above $11132. Daily RSI is bullish at 53 and Stoch RSI has entered overbought. The D3 printed a TD 9 buy signal at yesterday's candle close and appears to be confirming the 2 month hidden bullish divergence, as does the weekly. The current weekly candle has almost completely engulfed the previous week's candle. A weekly close above $10591.50 will engulf the previous two weekly candles.
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On the off-chance that strong demand suddenly appears, which I don't expect at this time, and sends price through the channel resistance and secondary target, then my expectation is for rejection at the R2 pivot at the bottom of the blue zone. In this scenario, I would expect to see a pullback toward $10800-$10850 before price heads higher. As always, these are rough estimates based on current charts, but I continually update my thoughts throughout the day for our premium Discord members.
The H12 is printing a TD 9 sell signal, with a topped out Stoch RSI, increasing the odds that we will see a pullback happening sooner rather than later. However, that candle has more than 10 hours remaining until close. The H12 RSI is also printing hidden bearish divergence, but this will be invalidated if price moves above $11132. Daily RSI is bullish at 53 and Stoch RSI has entered overbought. The D3 printed a TD 9 buy signal at yesterday's candle close and appears to be confirming the 2 month hidden bullish divergence, as does the weekly. The current weekly candle has almost completely engulfed the previous week's candle. A weekly close above $10591.50 will engulf the previous two weekly candles.
Our premium Discord members now have access to our trading basics course included with their membership! We continue to add more content for new traders to learn how to be more effective and consistent when trading the market.
_____________________________________________________________
Be sure to hit the "thumbs up!"
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own. When you do, be sure to explore the other TFs to see what I'm watching on those TFs.
ノート
Another possible channel that could be printing is shown below. It's too early to know which is more valid, so traders should be paying attention to price action as it develops.
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