ショート

AUD/JPY remains unchanged

アップデート済

My outlook for AUD/JPY remains unchanged, with multiple indicators still showing bearish behavior. In this analysis, I’ve used Fibonacci levels, volume-based money flow, and order block analysis to confirm the trend and identify potential price movement.

ノート

The article discusses market influences on the AUD/JPY (Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen) pair and what could impact its movement in the near future. Here's a simplified summary:

AUD/JPY Trend Shift:

The pair has weakened after a three-day winning streak, currently trading around 101.20.
The Japanese Yen gained strength after statements from Japanese officials, but its rise could be limited due to political instability in Japan.
Political Impact in Japan:

There are concerns that Japan's current ruling party (LDP) may lose its majority in the upcoming elections, which increases economic uncertainty.
Japan is also closely monitoring currency fluctuations and expressing concerns about their impact on the economy.
Australian Central Bank (RBA):

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may avoid cutting interest rates in 2024, which supports the Australian Dollar.
Positive employment data in Australia strengthens the outlook that the central bank will maintain a restrained monetary policy.
Economic Data:

In Australia, the Judo Bank Services PMI slightly increased to 50.6 in October, indicating continued growth in the private sector, despite a decline in the manufacturing sector.
Overall Meaning:
The AUD/JPY pair is influenced by both Japan's political and economic situation and Australia's economic policy. On one hand, the Australian Dollar is supported by positive data and a cautious monetary approach, but on the other hand, Japan's political instability may limit the rise of the Yen.

ノート

### Updated Analysis Based on Actual Data:

1. **Quarterly CPI (q/q)**:
- **Forecast**: 1.1%
- **Actual Result**: 0.3%
- **Previous**: 1.0%
- **Implication**: The result is significantly lower than expected and lower than the previous quarter, indicating a decline in quarterly inflation. This could weaken the Australian dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might not rush to raise interest rates.

2. **Yearly CPI (y/y)**:
- **Forecast**: 2.7%
- **Actual Result**: 2.3%
- **Previous**: 2.7%
- **Implication**: The result is below the forecast and the previous yearly data, suggesting a slight decrease in annual inflation. This could reduce the pressure on the RBA to raise rates, potentially weakening the Australian dollar.

3. **Trimmed Mean CPI (q/q)**:
- **Forecast**: 0.9%
- **Actual Result**: 0.8%
- **Previous**: 0.8%
- **Implication**: This result matches the previous quarter but falls below the forecast. As a measure that excludes extreme values, this stability at a low level hints at a slowdown.

### Overall Summary:
Given that all indicators came in below forecasts or remained at low stability, the Reserve Bank of Australia may adopt a less aggressive approach to rate hikes, which could lead to a weakening of the Australian dollar in the near term.

トレード稼働中

Today, we saw a significant breakthrough with a strong downside move, reaching a key support level on AUD/JPY. The trade played out beautifully, with a brief rally to the upside before the downtrend took hold. Though it took some time to set up, patience paid off, and we got the expected result. We’ll continue to watch closely for further downside continuation in the trend.

トレード終了: 利益確定目標に到達

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### **AUD/JPY: Market Moves Beyond Expectations Before Returning to Key Levels**

When analyzing AUD/JPY, it’s clear that the pair has reached nearly all the high-volume areas I initially marked as potential targets. However, the journey to these levels played out differently than anticipated, with the price moving much higher than expected before retracing back to these zones.

#### **Unexpected Market Behavior**
Initially, when calculating the possible price movement, I didn’t foresee such a sharp surge before the downtrend resumed. This unexpected behavior underscores the market’s unpredictability and the impact of external factors.

One notable example was the recent U.S. elections. The election outcome caused significant volatility in global markets, sending AUD/JPY skyrocketing in the short term before it returned to its downward trajectory. These moves demonstrate how quickly fundamentals can override technical expectations, creating opportunities — but also challenges — for traders.

#### **Current Technical Outlook**
At this point, AUD/JPY has reached a **key buy zone** identified through Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour chart. This area aligns with the broader technical structure, signaling potential support and a possible bounce.

Here’s why this zone is significant:
1. **Fibonacci Levels:**
The retracement level highlights a confluence of previous support and resistance areas, providing a strong technical reason for buyers to step in.
2. **High-Volume Zones:**
These areas, where large amounts of trading activity occurred previously, often act as magnets for price and potential reversal zones.

#### **Lessons from Recent Price Action**
The price action on AUD/JPY over the past few weeks has served as a reminder that while technical analysis is a powerful tool, external factors can shift the narrative in unexpected ways. Volatility, driven by events like the U.S. elections, can cause sharp movements that deviate from traditional patterns.

For traders, this is an important lesson: **stay flexible and prepared for the unexpected.** Even the most well-planned analyses may need adjustment when market conditions change.

#### **What’s Next for AUD/JPY?**
With the price now sitting at a critical support level, the next steps will depend on how the market reacts to this area.
- A strong bounce could signal the beginning of a recovery phase, especially if supported by fundamental drivers like improved risk sentiment.
- On the other hand, a breakdown below this zone could lead to a continuation of the downtrend, with the next high-volume area acting as a potential target.

For now, we’ll keep an eye on these levels and assess how the price reacts to the Fibonacci buy zone.

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