BTCUSD has failed at the 200 DMA three times already since it was lost. However, the 200 DMA is still rising due to the 47 day run from $6,000 to $20,000 still being included in the MA calculation. A rising 200 DMA is much more difficult to breach than a down-sloping one, leading me to believe that the upcoming inflection point in the 200 DMA will shortly precede the true inflection point for BTC and the crypto market as a whole.
tldr;
1. The probability of an instrument breaching a down-sloping 200 DMA is much greater than that with an up-sloping 200 DMA
2. In 47 days the peak of December 2017's run will no longer be included in the MA calculation, thus creating an inflection in the 200 DMA
3. Due to the sharpness of BTC's decline in early 2018, the 200 DMA will have a steep downward slope following the inflection.
4. BTC breaching this steep 200 DMA is a high probability indication of a long term inflection in price for BTC and the broader crypto market.
tldr;
1. The probability of an instrument breaching a down-sloping 200 DMA is much greater than that with an up-sloping 200 DMA
2. In 47 days the peak of December 2017's run will no longer be included in the MA calculation, thus creating an inflection in the 200 DMA
3. Due to the sharpness of BTC's decline in early 2018, the 200 DMA will have a steep downward slope following the inflection.
4. BTC breaching this steep 200 DMA is a high probability indication of a long term inflection in price for BTC and the broader crypto market.