ビットコイン／米ドルロング
All Time Historical BTC Major Trends and Long Term Prediction
Chart Analysis:
Using historical bitcoin price data, the graph has been extended to cover since 17/08/2010, so we can do a wider historical analysis of the price.
At first sight, there has been three great btc price rises, which I'll call stages: One from 0.10 USD to 10 USD, then from 10 USD to 1000 USD, and third from 1000 to a possible 100.000 USD in the near future. These are shown in the graph with three vertical lines at the left named 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
Inside each of these stages, we can see each has had three peaks in it, which are numbered from 1 to 3 inside or next to each peak in the graph.
The peaks in each stage have been cut by a straight line to easily identify them, and also to compare the slope each of these stages has.
In the first line, we can see the slope is very up hill, with a slope higher than 1. The second line for the second stage, has a lower slope of around 1. And the third line, has a slope even lower than the second, and less than 1 (log scale).
As it is also noticeable, begginning from the 1st peak during the first stage, to peak number 2 of this third stage, each time the width of the peaks slighly increases. Which can lead us to believe this peak we are experiencing now will be even wider than peak number 2 of this stage.
It is important to note that there is always a peak each time the price gets to 10^x USD, usually followed by a rise in price up to around 1.5*10^x, then going back to 10^x USD, and staying below that price before hitting a new 10^x+1 position.
For example, during the second peak of the 3rd stage, when the price hit 10.000 USD around november 2017, it then rose up to 15.000 USD for around a month, back to 10.000 USD, and then stayed below 10.000 USD before now rising up to 100.000 USD. This happened as well at 2nd stage first and second peak.
Also, after every peak from every stage, it has always happened that when price hits again its last All Time High, it goes straight up to a new peak.
Prediction:
Having this into consideration a prediction can be made in which there will be a third peak during this stage, which is forming now, and btc hitting not so far from now 10^5 = 100.000 USD, this prediction is the red curve, with the 3 for third peak.
Price might not get near the 10^6 = 1 million USD during this peak, as it has never reached a 10^x+1 price in the same peak as when it reached the 10^x price, nor have gotten close. But, having also in mind this peak should be wider than the last two, and taking into consideration price peaks after passing a 10^x price tend to hit a 1.5*10^x price, it might reach a price near 150.000 USD, stay there for some weeks or a few months, then head back to 100.000 USD and then stay below that price for a while as shown in the red curve.
Now, having 150.000 USD as the target, the question is when. As the price not long ago surpassed its All Time High from December 2017, price might head straight up to its target, as it has always done, and looking at how fast price tends to go to a new peak after an ATH, it might happen around April of 2021, but it could take longer and happen even at the end of 2021.
Do you think this prediction will happen?
Please like and subscribe! :D
If you liked this post feel free to donate! :D
Source for historical price data: CoinMetrics
Using historical bitcoin price data, the graph has been extended to cover since 17/08/2010, so we can do a wider historical analysis of the price.
At first sight, there has been three great btc price rises, which I'll call stages: One from 0.10 USD to 10 USD, then from 10 USD to 1000 USD, and third from 1000 to a possible 100.000 USD in the near future. These are shown in the graph with three vertical lines at the left named 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.
Inside each of these stages, we can see each has had three peaks in it, which are numbered from 1 to 3 inside or next to each peak in the graph.
The peaks in each stage have been cut by a straight line to easily identify them, and also to compare the slope each of these stages has.
In the first line, we can see the slope is very up hill, with a slope higher than 1. The second line for the second stage, has a lower slope of around 1. And the third line, has a slope even lower than the second, and less than 1 (log scale).
As it is also noticeable, begginning from the 1st peak during the first stage, to peak number 2 of this third stage, each time the width of the peaks slighly increases. Which can lead us to believe this peak we are experiencing now will be even wider than peak number 2 of this stage.
It is important to note that there is always a peak each time the price gets to 10^x USD, usually followed by a rise in price up to around 1.5*10^x, then going back to 10^x USD, and staying below that price before hitting a new 10^x+1 position.
For example, during the second peak of the 3rd stage, when the price hit 10.000 USD around november 2017, it then rose up to 15.000 USD for around a month, back to 10.000 USD, and then stayed below 10.000 USD before now rising up to 100.000 USD. This happened as well at 2nd stage first and second peak.
Also, after every peak from every stage, it has always happened that when price hits again its last All Time High, it goes straight up to a new peak.
Prediction:
Having this into consideration a prediction can be made in which there will be a third peak during this stage, which is forming now, and btc hitting not so far from now 10^5 = 100.000 USD, this prediction is the red curve, with the 3 for third peak.
Price might not get near the 10^6 = 1 million USD during this peak, as it has never reached a 10^x+1 price in the same peak as when it reached the 10^x price, nor have gotten close. But, having also in mind this peak should be wider than the last two, and taking into consideration price peaks after passing a 10^x price tend to hit a 1.5*10^x price, it might reach a price near 150.000 USD, stay there for some weeks or a few months, then head back to 100.000 USD and then stay below that price for a while as shown in the red curve.
Now, having 150.000 USD as the target, the question is when. As the price not long ago surpassed its All Time High from December 2017, price might head straight up to its target, as it has always done, and looking at how fast price tends to go to a new peak after an ATH, it might happen around April of 2021, but it could take longer and happen even at the end of 2021.
Do you think this prediction will happen?
Please like and subscribe! :D
If you liked this post feel free to donate! :D
Source for historical price data: CoinMetrics
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