Bitcoin: 3450 Support And Consolidating The Bottom.

Bitcoin update: Price has taken out the recent bullish trend line which points to a higher likelihood of retesting the 3450 area minor support. From a broader perspective, all this market is doing is establishing another consolidation which is a normal part of the bottoming process.

As we always remind our followers, tops and bottoms take time to develop. The key to managing risk effectively in these situations is to develop a number of scenarios and then constantly weigh the evidence as one begins to technically materialize. The easiest mistake you can make is to fixate on one single scenario.

The appearance of a large bearish candle points to further weakness in terms of momentum. This scenario can lead to the 3450 support test or even a revisit of the 3K psychological support. It is always about “Ifs” not absolutes. IF price tests 3450 and presents a bullish pin bar, then that would be a setup we would consider for a new swing trade long.

What if price breaks 3450 without any hesitation and closes the candle on its low? 3K becomes the greater possibility. What if price breaks 3K and closes weak? It can happen, and in such a series of events we have no problem stepping aside and waiting for a more supportive structure to return.

Do not lose sight of the bigger picture in the face of a large bearish candle. As long as the 3K area is maintained, that would serve as evidence of a broader consolidation. There are opportunities within sideways markets also, but they require the most patience since they are the most infrequent. The best thing we can see in such a situation is a failed low off the 3K bottom. This is usually when the reaction of the herd becomes extreme, which can be observed by dramatic spikes in short interest. During these periods you will also notice extreme emotional reactions in public forums like this one.

In summary, Bitcoin just like any other market is driven by the collective psychology of its most active participants. No one can accurately predict if this market is going much lower or not. Timing these markets effectively has little to do with prediction and everything to do with evaluating how new information is most likely to affect the perception of the herd in the near future. The highest probability setups are the ones where the crowd is faked out and caught on the wrong side. Your time is better spent learning to recognize the clues and then waiting for the evidence to appear, not chasing hype. Let Bitcoin find an appropriate level and then provide a solid reason to justify taking risk. The question is how well can you wait?