Expect the unexpected this year. As you know, I flipped bearish in December. Check out the TA below.
It's taken a while to rollover, but Bitcoin has failed to break the 0.75 Fib Fan. Just like in 2019, week after week, it closed right under it, and now it's finally making a move down.
There are two scenarios that I put together that have probable outcomes.
Scenario 1:
This idea is basically as you see in the main chart above, a deep correction to 30k that comes down to the 0.618 Fan Fib.
We have this diagonal macro support that has three macro cycle low hits. I hate diagonal supports; for me, they never hold up, but we will see with this one.
If we go back in history and see how 2015 played out with Fib Fans, we see a similar pattern with the 0.75 Fib Fan, a rejection, and a move down to the 0.618. The bottom for this cycle low played out very closely to 2015.
The cycle bottom of 2015 and 2022 were a mirror, mind-blowing really.
So in 2015 after a rejection of the 0.75 Fib Fan, Bitcoin comes back to retest its base.
Our base this cycle is 30k.
So why have I marked the timeframes between April and July 2024? Well, there are two time Fib sequences I'm following, one on the LINK/BTC chart, and the other is a macro Bitcoin sequence I have been following for years.
You can check it out below.
Every time we come to a date, something big happens with Chainlink and Bitcoin.
For me, if it continues playing out like 2015, a move to 30k this year is highly likely. Now, Scenario 2 is far more of a crazy outcome, but if I would put my money on it, Scenario 2 happens, not 1. Will publish Scenario 2 later on.
It's taken a while to rollover, but Bitcoin has failed to break the 0.75 Fib Fan. Just like in 2019, week after week, it closed right under it, and now it's finally making a move down.
There are two scenarios that I put together that have probable outcomes.
Scenario 1:
This idea is basically as you see in the main chart above, a deep correction to 30k that comes down to the 0.618 Fan Fib.
We have this diagonal macro support that has three macro cycle low hits. I hate diagonal supports; for me, they never hold up, but we will see with this one.
If we go back in history and see how 2015 played out with Fib Fans, we see a similar pattern with the 0.75 Fib Fan, a rejection, and a move down to the 0.618. The bottom for this cycle low played out very closely to 2015.
So in 2015 after a rejection of the 0.75 Fib Fan, Bitcoin comes back to retest its base.
Our base this cycle is 30k.
So why have I marked the timeframes between April and July 2024? Well, there are two time Fib sequences I'm following, one on the LINK/BTC chart, and the other is a macro Bitcoin sequence I have been following for years.
You can check it out below.
Every time we come to a date, something big happens with Chainlink and Bitcoin.
For me, if it continues playing out like 2015, a move to 30k this year is highly likely. Now, Scenario 2 is far more of a crazy outcome, but if I would put my money on it, Scenario 2 happens, not 1. Will publish Scenario 2 later on.
コメント:
Scenario-2 is up
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