Let me begin by dissecting the higher time frames to set context to this idea.
Quarterly
Price broke through the high and has since then retraced to the .5 level forming a possible higher low. For macro trend change and confirmation of the higher low we would have to see a higher high form next.
Monthly
We formed a (marginally) higher high on the monthly which is a first bullish sign. Next price would have to print a higher high, ideally in the blue zone for max R:R (lines up nicely with bottom of the weekly range and the daily consolidation below). If we break the low on the monthly well..
Weekly
Looks like a bullish quasimodo pattern to me. If it is then we typically see price returning to the range low before further upside. However we could see a retracement first and if we do this would be a good spot for it. Price is at weekly support and range EQ. A weekly close tomorrow above the range EQ would support this idea.
Daily
Not much to add on the daily. If we do go up from here I'm looking at 9200 area for my first TP (daily S/R) and the untested base around 9700 for full exit / dream short opp.
H4
Price SFP'ed into an untested base and RSI is showing a bullish divergence (volume is lacking as it is the weekend but the pattern is there nevertheless). The is a slight risk that we go for a three drive pattern into the untested daily block but I'm taking my chances here. Entered on low risk and looking to add on the way up.
Last note: i use candle closes to identify breaks in MS. That way I can easily visualise breaks on the line chart, even when breaks are tiny (for example because of low volume during weekends). Offcourse you can use candle highs and lows as well as long as you're consistent with it.
Quarterly
Price broke through the high and has since then retraced to the .5 level forming a possible higher low. For macro trend change and confirmation of the higher low we would have to see a higher high form next.
Monthly
We formed a (marginally) higher high on the monthly which is a first bullish sign. Next price would have to print a higher high, ideally in the blue zone for max R:R (lines up nicely with bottom of the weekly range and the daily consolidation below). If we break the low on the monthly well..
Weekly
Looks like a bullish quasimodo pattern to me. If it is then we typically see price returning to the range low before further upside. However we could see a retracement first and if we do this would be a good spot for it. Price is at weekly support and range EQ. A weekly close tomorrow above the range EQ would support this idea.
Daily
Not much to add on the daily. If we do go up from here I'm looking at 9200 area for my first TP (daily S/R) and the untested base around 9700 for full exit / dream short opp.
H4
Price SFP'ed into an untested base and RSI is showing a bullish divergence (volume is lacking as it is the weekend but the pattern is there nevertheless). The is a slight risk that we go for a three drive pattern into the untested daily block but I'm taking my chances here. Entered on low risk and looking to add on the way up.
Last note: i use candle closes to identify breaks in MS. That way I can easily visualise breaks on the line chart, even when breaks are tiny (for example because of low volume during weekends). Offcourse you can use candle highs and lows as well as long as you're consistent with it.
コメント:
Daily closed below the 8600 level which makes the bullish scenario explained above less likely. However weekend pumps on BTC are common and we're so close to invalidation that it's not worth it imo to close early. Just going to let this play out.