The last couple of months have definitely been difficult to trade. If you've made money, congrats.
We've just been stuck in a lot of chop and I think the chop will continue until around early July before we see a trending move higher.
Even though we've had a pump higher in the last couple of days, I still think we're in the process of a complex correction. So if you missed this move, be patient.
I think the move higher in BTC will stall out somewhere in the grey box - somewhere between 28.3k-23.7k. If we can't break that resistance, then I think the next move is going to shake a lot of people out.
If you look at the chart, you can see that 23.2k is a level that still hasn't been tested as support, and I think that level will need to be tested before we can move much higher from here. I think the most likely scenario is that over the course of the next 3-7 days, BTC will test this level higher and alts will rally a little bit to bait in new longs. Then I think at some point next week, BTC will dump back to 23.2k.
That's where I'll want to be long BTC (23.2k) because I think there's significant upside there in a relatively short amount of time. I think we'll see a relatively fast move higher into the 30k range from that level (60% upside to final target). The first resistance being 32.8k, and the next and final resistance being 37.3ishk. Once we hit that 37k level, that's where I'll exit all of my longs, because I believe that after that, we'll see the continuation of the bear market below 10k.
Be cautious trading alts over the next week or two. If you do, set tight stops and take gains while you have them. Because if we do see that dump to 23.2k, I think it's going to get very ugly for alts.