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BTCUSD: Bear Flag Short Set-up

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Bitcoin is currently painting a bear flag after strong rejection of higher pricing. Note the strong increase in volume on the way down, compared to the very low volume once price began to channel slightly higher again.

Because this can continue for an unknown duration, it is advisable to wait for a breakout from this structure before selling. Upon breaking lower, it is common to see price return to test the lower trendline of the bear flag channel. A test and rejection of this trendline offers a second opportunity to enter, or add to an existing short, with a fairly tight stop loss.

I'm looking at 24100 as an initial take profit level for this short play. During the trade, it would be wise to monitor the movement of the Nasdaq as well, since BTC has been correlating strongly with the USA tech sector. A strong rally in tech would have me considering exiting the trade early.

If you are holding unleveraged bitcoin, I would advise selling while the market is still in the bear flag with a plan to buy it back at lower price. Leverage traders should wait for breakout confirmation in order to properly manage risk.

That's all I have for today. I'll be watching this price action over the weekend to see how it plays out.

Trade well everyone!

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For some reason the volume profile indicator that I'm using won't display on the published chart. Sorry about that folks.

You'll have to apply the indicator to your own charts to see what I'm talking about.