The Bitcoin Bear Market Resumes Until May-June 2019
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The aim of this Monthly chart is to mainly track the timing of the end of the Bear Market expected around May-June 2019 and the start of a new multiyear uptrend through the next Megabull. Preferably, Bitcoin remains within the old bull channel as the blue projection fractal shows. Note we are not expecting Bitcoin to follow exactly that exact path, the fractal is just for reference.
Market Sentiment:
The sentiment is clearly bearish as the Bear Market has resumed
The Bear Market ends around May-June 2019 then a new multi-year bull trend starts which culminates in a Megabull that ends around May 2022 at a maximum of $500,000 per Bitcoin (assuming Crypto is fully mainstream + increased mass adoption).
Technical Analysis:
In September 2018, we published a detailed analysis internally to our clients on the potential Bear Market continuation (as the 12H 1D 3D 1W Bollinger tight bands squeezed tight for a big move) should the Monthly Candle close below the monthly support and the Monthly Momentum print a bearish red candle. Fast forward two and a month forward, our stoploss at $6,090 was hit and both conditions were fulfilled on top of many bearish signals that the Bear Market flashed before the break down:
These bearish signals are summarized below:
1. Continuation Pattern through Bearish H&S with head at $8,516 and target of $3,860-3,687
2. 200EMA 3D Death Cross – November 15
3. Monthly Momentum Death Cross (this analysis on the momentum) – October 1
4. Monthly Midband Bear Cross – November 1
5. The latest bearish weekly close which cancelled the Wyckoff Spring Scenario – November 18
That said, lets discuss only point 3 by giving you some historical information on it
History of the Monthly Momentum Death Cross:
Looking at our chart, we notice that the Monthly Momentum has printed two bearish candles for a second consecutive month and that Bitcoin has failed to close above the Monthly Midband at $6,380-6,400 and instead build a new strong Monthly Resistance at $6,640-6,700. Based on this observation, our expectation for the next few months was to remain cautious of the Bear Market continuation for 6 more months by keeping tight stoploss at $6,090 and look for the break down.
How did we make the assumption that the Bear Market can resume another 6 months?
Well simply by looking back at the last time the same pattern happened which is back in October 2014-January 2015. Looking at that range, we notice that the Monthly Midband Bear cross occurred on October 2014 followed by a Monthly Momentum Death Cross on December 2014-January 2015. Consequently, the Market went from $414 to $170 losing roughly another 40-50%.
Compared to the current market action, we are expecting a similar 40-50% loss with a drop from $6,544 towards the $3,926-3,300 range where we will be looking to buy.
Buy/Support:
Based on Technical Analysis, Fractal Analysis and the above, we see the Bear Market bottoming potentially at the below levels which would be good buy areas:
$4,250-4,000 – with potential wick to $3,860-3,687 (1W RSI will be oversold at 30 + target of bearish H&S) - Potential Bottom #1
$3,000 – with potential wick to $2,600-2,440 - Potential Bottom #2
Future Megabull Potential Sell/Resistances:
$29,000-30,000
$68,000-69,862
$100,000-117,864 – Potential All-Time-High
$120,000-125,000
$200,000-220,000
$490,000-500,000 – Maximum potential All-Time-High Target in May 2022
Like our post? Please like and follow and join our free signals telegram channel. Look for the publication of a Weekly Chart in few days!
The aim of this Monthly chart is to mainly track the timing of the end of the Bear Market expected around May-June 2019 and the start of a new multiyear uptrend through the next Megabull. Preferably, Bitcoin remains within the old bull channel as the blue projection fractal shows. Note we are not expecting Bitcoin to follow exactly that exact path, the fractal is just for reference.
Market Sentiment:
The sentiment is clearly bearish as the Bear Market has resumed
The Bear Market ends around May-June 2019 then a new multi-year bull trend starts which culminates in a Megabull that ends around May 2022 at a maximum of $500,000 per Bitcoin (assuming Crypto is fully mainstream + increased mass adoption).
Technical Analysis:
In September 2018, we published a detailed analysis internally to our clients on the potential Bear Market continuation (as the 12H 1D 3D 1W Bollinger tight bands squeezed tight for a big move) should the Monthly Candle close below the monthly support and the Monthly Momentum print a bearish red candle. Fast forward two and a month forward, our stoploss at $6,090 was hit and both conditions were fulfilled on top of many bearish signals that the Bear Market flashed before the break down:
These bearish signals are summarized below:
1. Continuation Pattern through Bearish H&S with head at $8,516 and target of $3,860-3,687
2. 200EMA 3D Death Cross – November 15
3. Monthly Momentum Death Cross (this analysis on the momentum) – October 1
4. Monthly Midband Bear Cross – November 1
5. The latest bearish weekly close which cancelled the Wyckoff Spring Scenario – November 18
That said, lets discuss only point 3 by giving you some historical information on it
History of the Monthly Momentum Death Cross:
Looking at our chart, we notice that the Monthly Momentum has printed two bearish candles for a second consecutive month and that Bitcoin has failed to close above the Monthly Midband at $6,380-6,400 and instead build a new strong Monthly Resistance at $6,640-6,700. Based on this observation, our expectation for the next few months was to remain cautious of the Bear Market continuation for 6 more months by keeping tight stoploss at $6,090 and look for the break down.
How did we make the assumption that the Bear Market can resume another 6 months?
Well simply by looking back at the last time the same pattern happened which is back in October 2014-January 2015. Looking at that range, we notice that the Monthly Midband Bear cross occurred on October 2014 followed by a Monthly Momentum Death Cross on December 2014-January 2015. Consequently, the Market went from $414 to $170 losing roughly another 40-50%.
Compared to the current market action, we are expecting a similar 40-50% loss with a drop from $6,544 towards the $3,926-3,300 range where we will be looking to buy.
Buy/Support:
Based on Technical Analysis, Fractal Analysis and the above, we see the Bear Market bottoming potentially at the below levels which would be good buy areas:
$4,250-4,000 – with potential wick to $3,860-3,687 (1W RSI will be oversold at 30 + target of bearish H&S) - Potential Bottom #1
$3,000 – with potential wick to $2,600-2,440 - Potential Bottom #2
Future Megabull Potential Sell/Resistances:
$29,000-30,000
$68,000-69,862
$100,000-117,864 – Potential All-Time-High
$120,000-125,000
$200,000-220,000
$490,000-500,000 – Maximum potential All-Time-High Target in May 2022
Like our post? Please like and follow and join our free signals telegram channel. Look for the publication of a Weekly Chart in few days!
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Bitcoin Long-term Monthly Bollinger Bands Projection Update 3 - 12/31/2018: - Happy New Year 2019 Edition
As we inch towards 2019 and celebrating the New Year, we also look forward to the December Monthly Close as well. The Monthly BTCUSD Bitstamp chart looks slightly bullish with the close tomorrow. Nevertheless, I think the January/February Monthly closes will be the most important ones to look for actually as they will confirm if we bottomed yet or not.
December Observation/RECAP:
In December the bears were in full control and dropped Bitcoin to lose half its value ($6,300 to $3,122), the bears or sellers have gotten really exhausted once we reached $3,190-3,122. From there we called a potential short-term bull reversal through an IH&S roughly 2-3 weeks ago which ended confirming and so far still at play.
What to look for tomorrow at the Monthly Close tomorrow:
Bulls: (Blue)
The bulls would want to close preferably at or above the $3,680-3,550 support (likely)
At worse, Bitcoin must remain above $3,500 or our stoploss at $3,450. With the Monthly Bollinger Bands squeezing tighter from now through May 2019 and the Monthly bottom band / support inching higher to potentially open at $1,200 tomorrow. If we look at the Monthly 2014-2015 bands it is also starting to look like we could have bottomed at $3,122 and creating a support at $3,680-3,550 for the next 5 months before the bull trend starts again around May 2019 as I had projected - but it is too early to confirm this at 100%.
Bears: (Purple)
The bears would want to close below $3,450 which would have bearish repercussion with most likely the continuation of the Bear Market at play towards new lows but that's unlikely within the next 24 hours but more likely within the next 2 months:
Downtrend would resume with a wick to $2,100-1,840 - then the market builds support at $2,500-2,600 for the next 5 months
Monthly BTCUSD Chart:
Happy New Year Everyone! Do not forget to join our free Membership channel on Telegram an consider joining our paid membership VIP platform no later than May 2019 when the Crypto trends becomes bullish again.
As we inch towards 2019 and celebrating the New Year, we also look forward to the December Monthly Close as well. The Monthly BTCUSD Bitstamp chart looks slightly bullish with the close tomorrow. Nevertheless, I think the January/February Monthly closes will be the most important ones to look for actually as they will confirm if we bottomed yet or not.
December Observation/RECAP:
In December the bears were in full control and dropped Bitcoin to lose half its value ($6,300 to $3,122), the bears or sellers have gotten really exhausted once we reached $3,190-3,122. From there we called a potential short-term bull reversal through an IH&S roughly 2-3 weeks ago which ended confirming and so far still at play.
What to look for tomorrow at the Monthly Close tomorrow:
Bulls: (Blue)
The bulls would want to close preferably at or above the $3,680-3,550 support (likely)
At worse, Bitcoin must remain above $3,500 or our stoploss at $3,450. With the Monthly Bollinger Bands squeezing tighter from now through May 2019 and the Monthly bottom band / support inching higher to potentially open at $1,200 tomorrow. If we look at the Monthly 2014-2015 bands it is also starting to look like we could have bottomed at $3,122 and creating a support at $3,680-3,550 for the next 5 months before the bull trend starts again around May 2019 as I had projected - but it is too early to confirm this at 100%.
Bears: (Purple)
The bears would want to close below $3,450 which would have bearish repercussion with most likely the continuation of the Bear Market at play towards new lows but that's unlikely within the next 24 hours but more likely within the next 2 months:
Downtrend would resume with a wick to $2,100-1,840 - then the market builds support at $2,500-2,600 for the next 5 months
Monthly BTCUSD Chart:
Happy New Year Everyone! Do not forget to join our free Membership channel on Telegram an consider joining our paid membership VIP platform no later than May 2019 when the Crypto trends becomes bullish again.
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This Monthly chart played out nicely following the blue fractal. We bottomed at $3,126 Bitstamp and established as I said several months ago we will be "creating a support at $3,680-3,550 for the next 5 months before the bull trend starts again around May 2019"
Currently:
The Monthly bands have advanced and are starting to re-tighten again (especially the bottom band). Comparing it to 2015, it tells me that the chances of going down to $3,870-3,320 again are EXTREMELY LOW and the chances of seeing this rally continue to $6,000-6,400 is much higher.
Summary: Overall, the mid-term and long-term picture is rather clear on Bitcoin, the trend is changing gradually to bull and will need until September to confirm it with a move past $6,400-6,500 towards $7,770-8,400.
Long-term investors can start to buy on the retest of $5,300-4,950 in the incoming months through this summer. It will be unlikely to see lower than this area unfortunately.
Currently:
The Monthly bands have advanced and are starting to re-tighten again (especially the bottom band). Comparing it to 2015, it tells me that the chances of going down to $3,870-3,320 again are EXTREMELY LOW and the chances of seeing this rally continue to $6,000-6,400 is much higher.
Summary: Overall, the mid-term and long-term picture is rather clear on Bitcoin, the trend is changing gradually to bull and will need until September to confirm it with a move past $6,400-6,500 towards $7,770-8,400.
Long-term investors can start to buy on the retest of $5,300-4,950 in the incoming months through this summer. It will be unlikely to see lower than this area unfortunately.
Join my Crypto trading signals and community:
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🔗 X: twitter.com/BitcoinGuruHQ
📽 YouTube: www.youtube.com/channel/UCLefQPP8cAuvyIZD0t0gtbg
🤝 Free Community on Discord: discord.gg/hgHtyrZnKg
🔗 X: twitter.com/BitcoinGuruHQ
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Looking at the Monthly Bollinger Bands in 2014 compared to now, we can see that the Bear Market will put a final bottom within the next 2 months tops. After $4,200-4,000 failed to hold as we advised in our telegram channel and VIP channel (we got back to cash before the washdown), the bottom is close and should be around $3,300-2,400 range roughly based on the market data we have now and no catastrophic bad news considered.
I have also projected the Monthly Bollinger Band's progress in clear green going through May-June 2019 as they start to squeeze tight like the 2015 long accumulation / end of Bear Market before the bull trend starts.
We will have a very important Monthly close next Friday on Bitcoin and Crypto where we can put a V bottom then and most importantly see the Monthly bottom band move up closer to approximately $1,800-2,000. In my opinion, the Monthly bottom band should provide us very strong support if we need it.
Monthly Chart: