Bitcoins Bear market over or just a short squeeze rally
I had a day off today, so i didn't watch the price action closley, but i have been thinking about what might me going for the long term especially. I started to write my thoughts down:
At this point, i still really can't say what the next step might be. I knew a move towards 6800 was possible, as described in my analysis as an option. But it was bigger, but even more, faster than i thought it would be. I know it was a short squeeze, that was the whole idea, but alts have rallied later today as well. My gut tells me, this is still temporarily, we will see a big drop sooner or later. At least a fast 500/1000 point drop.
But the combo with the strong alts today is making doubt a lot. At this moment, i am not seeing any weakness yet on the low time frame. So unless we see something there, i just can't say what the next short term move is.
We can also not deny the V shape move on the weekly i mentioned in the previous analysis. A big fast drop of 500/1000 can still easily happen even if the V shape is real, but if it is real (what i am not convinced of yet), it should be max 1000/1200 points. So in other words, if the V shape is real, the big drop towards 4K levels should never happen. I talked about past months, that if we see a big rally, it will depend on the strength of it, to judge if the end of the bear market has started already or if it's just another lower high like we have seen several in 2018. Think there is no denying that this rally is very strong to this point. If there would be an ideal scenario 2 months ago about what we would need to see to think the bear market, well exactly this.
However, alts have under performed extremely past month. Until today i gave it a very small chance that this is it already. Later today, after the first push to 7000, alt coins started to rally big as well. This is not really meaningful yet though. If Bitcoin would manage to consolidate above the 6600 coming days and alts continue to grow, than bullish perspective will increase a lot. Because it could indicate a real trend change. Until now i will remain a bit cautious.
Just look at how bearish the whole market was the past half year, like it was completely dead. Now it seems like Bitcoin is strong as ever, an unstoppable force. Welcome to the financial markets. Until we see a real correction, at least 300/400 points, i can't give a guidance short term. I have drawn those triangles on the right, there is no weakness at all. This last push just now to 7200 was just as strong. A lower high at 7100 would have been a sign, seeing the market loose momentum. But no such thing yet. Volume is dropping, but it's weekend so that makes it a bit more difficult to judge. We had a few big moves past half year, the big drops in Dec and Feb, one was at Christmas and one during the weekend. Looks like the weekend has been chosen on purpose, but of course can't back that up, just a feeling.
I gave 3 possible targets i could think of a few weeks ago, with 6900 being the highest. We even got passed that one with no struggle at all.
I will update when i know more. You can say, even though i have been bullish past half year or so, i am just caught off guard at this point. This is a unique market. The bear market was like any other financial market, but if bitcoin is something real for the long term, than this market is unique and so are it's movements as well.
Just crazy :)
Previous analysis:
At this point, i still really can't say what the next step might be. I knew a move towards 6800 was possible, as described in my analysis as an option. But it was bigger, but even more, faster than i thought it would be. I know it was a short squeeze, that was the whole idea, but alts have rallied later today as well. My gut tells me, this is still temporarily, we will see a big drop sooner or later. At least a fast 500/1000 point drop.
But the combo with the strong alts today is making doubt a lot. At this moment, i am not seeing any weakness yet on the low time frame. So unless we see something there, i just can't say what the next short term move is.
We can also not deny the V shape move on the weekly i mentioned in the previous analysis. A big fast drop of 500/1000 can still easily happen even if the V shape is real, but if it is real (what i am not convinced of yet), it should be max 1000/1200 points. So in other words, if the V shape is real, the big drop towards 4K levels should never happen. I talked about past months, that if we see a big rally, it will depend on the strength of it, to judge if the end of the bear market has started already or if it's just another lower high like we have seen several in 2018. Think there is no denying that this rally is very strong to this point. If there would be an ideal scenario 2 months ago about what we would need to see to think the bear market, well exactly this.
However, alts have under performed extremely past month. Until today i gave it a very small chance that this is it already. Later today, after the first push to 7000, alt coins started to rally big as well. This is not really meaningful yet though. If Bitcoin would manage to consolidate above the 6600 coming days and alts continue to grow, than bullish perspective will increase a lot. Because it could indicate a real trend change. Until now i will remain a bit cautious.
Just look at how bearish the whole market was the past half year, like it was completely dead. Now it seems like Bitcoin is strong as ever, an unstoppable force. Welcome to the financial markets. Until we see a real correction, at least 300/400 points, i can't give a guidance short term. I have drawn those triangles on the right, there is no weakness at all. This last push just now to 7200 was just as strong. A lower high at 7100 would have been a sign, seeing the market loose momentum. But no such thing yet. Volume is dropping, but it's weekend so that makes it a bit more difficult to judge. We had a few big moves past half year, the big drops in Dec and Feb, one was at Christmas and one during the weekend. Looks like the weekend has been chosen on purpose, but of course can't back that up, just a feeling.
I gave 3 possible targets i could think of a few weeks ago, with 6900 being the highest. We even got passed that one with no struggle at all.
I will update when i know more. You can say, even though i have been bullish past half year or so, i am just caught off guard at this point. This is a unique market. The bear market was like any other financial market, but if bitcoin is something real for the long term, than this market is unique and so are it's movements as well.
Just crazy :)
Previous analysis:
コメント:
For the day traders, during moments like these, catching a high is very tough. Only thing one can go on is a H&S or a wedge on the low time frame. We can see it keeps making higher lows and highs. Bounce up each previous support or high. So extremely strong. Like on the right, you can see several points here that can give support. Much safer play for a short is, waiting for the green to really break, than wait for the correction and than take on a short. If the drop is big, we usually see an ABC, so catching wave C is easier than catching the high. For the bull day traders, you have a road map of the first signs of weakness. Until then, just enjoy :)
コメント:
To be clear, this is an example, not what i am expecting to happen now. Just showing what you want to see if this would be the high
