Bitcoin could be still in bear market $4200-$4400 is my buy in
This is not a financial advice and I put it here only for my own record.
I shared this idea with @filbfilb (https://www.tradingview.com/u/filbfilb/) on his twitter about April 7th, 2019. The idea was to see the long-term pattern of NVT chart. Take a look at weekly (or monthly) NVT chart. It looks like we are repeating the previous pattern, specially take a look at the orange line (moving average).
We had three major peaks around 1) 25 March 2013, 2) 25 Nov 2013, and 3) 25 July 2014. We are repeating these three peaks. We already passed the first two on 1) 18 Dec 2017 and 2) 29 Oct 2018 (See the arrows on the NVT chart). The three one is to complete about July 2019. If that is true then we are not at 5 Dec 2015 but around 25 may 2014 and we probably stay in bear market for much longer time than we all expected. This idea also supports what OPTICALARTdotCOM mentioned in his recent video on his Youtube channel (Titled ‘Bitcoin worst case scenario! What if it’s worse than we thought? just for fun! TA’).
Remember, bottom happens when nobody is expected, when the majority of traders are almost forget Bitcoin, and they truly give it up! I still do not see that, people are sooo excited about this, everybody talks about bull market and going to the moon. Even my non-trader friends still talks about Bitcoin. To me and many other folks, it was too soon to see the true bottom (I am not saying the true bottom is way below $3200, we may retest that level to have a double bottom).
Also, pay attention to two Fib Retracement levels I drew. In both 2014 and 2019 we went back up to the 38.2% level.
Also, this idea plays out very well with the light blue Pitchfork I drew as well as the overall linear downward pattern that bitcoin had in the past (see the green lines). I do not know when we see a new bottom or to retest the previous one but my gut feeling says it might be around Q42019-Q12020 at around $2500 (the horizontal red line).
BUT BUT BUT I see a very strong support at $6000 and $4200-$4400 (if we go below $6000, the next major support would be ~ $4400, which is much much stronger than $6000 level, so I would buy as much as I can at that level (not all in though)). So, I would definitely accumulating from $6000 all the way down to $4000 or maybe $2500. (I prefer loosing money than missing the last-chance-of-buying-Bitcoin-at-6000-USD).
Note that ~ $4000 is where our weekly 200 MA is heading to! (the thick blue line). Hopefully, by that time we see higher volumes as we expect to have around the true (or final bottom)
Please support my analysis by sharing/liking/leaving comments.
Thanks,
I shared this idea with @filbfilb (https://www.tradingview.com/u/filbfilb/) on his twitter about April 7th, 2019. The idea was to see the long-term pattern of NVT chart. Take a look at weekly (or monthly) NVT chart. It looks like we are repeating the previous pattern, specially take a look at the orange line (moving average).
We had three major peaks around 1) 25 March 2013, 2) 25 Nov 2013, and 3) 25 July 2014. We are repeating these three peaks. We already passed the first two on 1) 18 Dec 2017 and 2) 29 Oct 2018 (See the arrows on the NVT chart). The three one is to complete about July 2019. If that is true then we are not at 5 Dec 2015 but around 25 may 2014 and we probably stay in bear market for much longer time than we all expected. This idea also supports what OPTICALARTdotCOM mentioned in his recent video on his Youtube channel (Titled ‘Bitcoin worst case scenario! What if it’s worse than we thought? just for fun! TA’).
Remember, bottom happens when nobody is expected, when the majority of traders are almost forget Bitcoin, and they truly give it up! I still do not see that, people are sooo excited about this, everybody talks about bull market and going to the moon. Even my non-trader friends still talks about Bitcoin. To me and many other folks, it was too soon to see the true bottom (I am not saying the true bottom is way below $3200, we may retest that level to have a double bottom).
Also, pay attention to two Fib Retracement levels I drew. In both 2014 and 2019 we went back up to the 38.2% level.
Also, this idea plays out very well with the light blue Pitchfork I drew as well as the overall linear downward pattern that bitcoin had in the past (see the green lines). I do not know when we see a new bottom or to retest the previous one but my gut feeling says it might be around Q42019-Q12020 at around $2500 (the horizontal red line).
BUT BUT BUT I see a very strong support at $6000 and $4200-$4400 (if we go below $6000, the next major support would be ~ $4400, which is much much stronger than $6000 level, so I would buy as much as I can at that level (not all in though)). So, I would definitely accumulating from $6000 all the way down to $4000 or maybe $2500. (I prefer loosing money than missing the last-chance-of-buying-Bitcoin-at-6000-USD).
Note that ~ $4000 is where our weekly 200 MA is heading to! (the thick blue line). Hopefully, by that time we see higher volumes as we expect to have around the true (or final bottom)
Please support my analysis by sharing/liking/leaving comments.
Thanks,
