Trendline Support & Resistance (comparing Bitcoin and Gold)

Plenty of ideas show the wedge on BTCUSD but not usually on the log scale. The log scale is particularly important for understanding price action, specially on assets that can move parabolically (which means they give back a whole lot).

The rising orange trend line shows how previous support turns to resistance with the handy green oval showing support and the red hammer showing resistance. These trend lines flipping from support to resistance is a great place to start doing some Elliot wave analysis. We are looking for a target on Wave C and a common fib extension of 1.618 of wave A would get us to $1000. A more bearish fib extension gets us to $150, and that target needs to be very real to us.

So, if BTCUSD slips the falling orange trend line and meets the next most logical support, the 200w SMA, the trend line is now poised to act as resistance. Very likely under this scenario we slip the 200 and get the red hammer around next February/March.

Below is the travesty of the gold/usd chart of over the last decade plus. It shows a lot of history and the important thing to note is in the bitcoin chart points O-A-B are about 18 months apart and the 0-A-B are also about 18 months apart on the gold chart.

key things to note are

• 1 Just because the orange trend line became support again didn't mean the downtrend was over. Gold bounced on the support a couple of times before it was superseded by the falling black trend line. And even though it was support the price action still fell lower.
  
  
• 2 a 2.618 fib extension of wave A is very possible. Gold had one.
  
  

I have had the thought that silver might be due for a 2.618 extension as well as we go into a recession. The target on that is around $8.5, and if we get the descending triangle to over-perform x2 it almost exactly matches the 2.618 extension of Wave A.