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Bitcoin kicks off the New Year on a bullish note

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After a series of bearish breakouts from the pattern resembling a triangle on the hourly chart, Bitcoin kicked off the new year on a bullish note and skyrocketed through its upper bound. By doing so, it established a new high at $45,532. Yet, despite this being a bullish development, a few things continue to ring an alarm bell for us. Last week, we noted that Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC increased in number following the dip in price. However, we have seen the opposite happening since 29th December 2023, with big players seemingly unloading their holdings into Bitcoin’s strength. While this occurrence does not necessarily warrant Bitcoin’s top, it is something to monitor in the foreseeable future. Another thing to watch out for would be an invalidation of a breakout above $44,729 and technicals on the daily chart. In the past two weeks, we have seen RSI retreat from the overbought territory and MACD reverse to the downside. Then, in the past three trading sessions, we have seen them attempting to reverse to the upside. If MACD follows through and RSI breaks above 70 points, it will bolster a bullish case. In such a scenario, we expect Bitcoin to test an important resistance near $48,000. Contrarily, the failure of the mentioned technicals to continue gaining strength will raise our concerns. All in all, our stance remains unchanged, and we will update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.

Illustration 1.01

The picture shows the hourly chart of Bitcoin and the pattern resembling an ascending triangle. Yellow arrows indicate essential developments.

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 displays the daily graph of Bitcoin and simple support/resistance levels.

Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral (no trend/weak trend)
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.

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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

ノート

In the past 24 hours, the number of Bitcoin adressess with balances exceeding 100 BTC slided further down.

ノート

Following yesterday's dip in the price of Bitcoin, the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 100 BTC ticked higher; this, however, does not apply to the number of addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC.