"Analysis of CADCHF Pair: Downtrend and Seller Presence"
💹 Let's delve into the analysis of this forex pair, update our previous analysis, and identify new triggers.
📅 Weekly Updates:
Starting from Monday to Wednesday, we'll cover , Monday: Bitcoin and Dominance analysis , Tuesday: Ethereum and ETH/BTC analysis , Wednesday: Gold analysis
These are in addition to our daily analyses.
🔄 Previous Analysis Recap:
Previously, we were anticipating a break of 0.66968, but it got rejected. After breaking the trendline and confirming the 0.66021 trigger, we moved towards the next support level.
📊 Weekly Time Frame:
In the weekly time frame, we are in a long-term box like other forex pairs. Due to consistently hitting lower highs and lows, our medium-term trend is bearish. Hence, we hold short positions longer and open fewer buy positions.
After finding support at 0.63422 and moving towards the 0.66863 resistance, we got rejected at the 0.236 Fibonacci level, increasing the likelihood of breaking 0.63422.
📆 Daily Time Frame:
In the daily time frame, we witnessed a decline after breaking the continuation trendline, moving towards the 0.64919 support.
Regarding this trendline, it’s a continuation pattern, so we don't need an entry trigger for short positions since our long-term trend is bearish. Any price spike is an opportunity to sell.
The 0.64919 support level is significant both as a 50% Fibonacci retracement and a critical level in Dow Theory.
⏳ Personal Positioning:
I’ve also opened a short position on this pair. While I usually don't share my positions publicly, I want you to know that I use the entry points mentioned in the analyses myself.
🗣️ Using the Fake Breakout strategy, we saw a fake breakout at the 0.66906 resistance in the daily time frame. Moving to a lower time frame and identifying the first trigger after a breakout, we opened a short position, which was confirmed by the trendline break.
💡 Currently, this position has a risk-to-reward ratio of 11. It will close after stabilizing above 0.65262. You might wonder why I don’t close it now to secure the profit. Well, adhering to Dow Theory, the position has already achieved significant profit and closing it on 0.65961 support would have missed this gain. Further movement after breaking 0.64975 is possible, but the position is secure!
📉 Short Position Strategy:
Since momentum persists, we can open a short position after breaking 0.64946. Confirmation includes the 7-period SMA reaching the candle and the RSI entering the oversell zone at 29.80.
📈 Long Position Strategy:
For long positions, patience is key as we are in a downtrend across most cycles. We will either open a long position on a different chart or wait for a consolidation and structure formation on this chart.
🔑 Key Levels:
Supports: 0.64946, 0.63422
Resistances: 0.65961, 0.66906
🕰️ I hope you have a great trading week! Remember, it's best to reduce risk at the beginning of the market week and trade with logical risk levels in the following days.
😊 If you'd like me to analyze a specific coin or currency pair, be sure to comment so that I can allocate the next analysis for you!
⚠️ Also, please remember that I'm just an analyst, and this isn't financial advice. We're here to stay in the market and maximize profits by adhering to risk and capital management principles.
📅 Weekly Updates:
Starting from Monday to Wednesday, we'll cover , Monday: Bitcoin and Dominance analysis , Tuesday: Ethereum and ETH/BTC analysis , Wednesday: Gold analysis
These are in addition to our daily analyses.
🔄 Previous Analysis Recap:
Previously, we were anticipating a break of 0.66968, but it got rejected. After breaking the trendline and confirming the 0.66021 trigger, we moved towards the next support level.
📊 Weekly Time Frame:
In the weekly time frame, we are in a long-term box like other forex pairs. Due to consistently hitting lower highs and lows, our medium-term trend is bearish. Hence, we hold short positions longer and open fewer buy positions.
After finding support at 0.63422 and moving towards the 0.66863 resistance, we got rejected at the 0.236 Fibonacci level, increasing the likelihood of breaking 0.63422.
📆 Daily Time Frame:
In the daily time frame, we witnessed a decline after breaking the continuation trendline, moving towards the 0.64919 support.
Regarding this trendline, it’s a continuation pattern, so we don't need an entry trigger for short positions since our long-term trend is bearish. Any price spike is an opportunity to sell.
The 0.64919 support level is significant both as a 50% Fibonacci retracement and a critical level in Dow Theory.
⏳ Personal Positioning:
I’ve also opened a short position on this pair. While I usually don't share my positions publicly, I want you to know that I use the entry points mentioned in the analyses myself.
🗣️ Using the Fake Breakout strategy, we saw a fake breakout at the 0.66906 resistance in the daily time frame. Moving to a lower time frame and identifying the first trigger after a breakout, we opened a short position, which was confirmed by the trendline break.
💡 Currently, this position has a risk-to-reward ratio of 11. It will close after stabilizing above 0.65262. You might wonder why I don’t close it now to secure the profit. Well, adhering to Dow Theory, the position has already achieved significant profit and closing it on 0.65961 support would have missed this gain. Further movement after breaking 0.64975 is possible, but the position is secure!
📉 Short Position Strategy:
Since momentum persists, we can open a short position after breaking 0.64946. Confirmation includes the 7-period SMA reaching the candle and the RSI entering the oversell zone at 29.80.
📈 Long Position Strategy:
For long positions, patience is key as we are in a downtrend across most cycles. We will either open a long position on a different chart or wait for a consolidation and structure formation on this chart.
🔑 Key Levels:
Supports: 0.64946, 0.63422
Resistances: 0.65961, 0.66906
🕰️ I hope you have a great trading week! Remember, it's best to reduce risk at the beginning of the market week and trade with logical risk levels in the following days.
😊 If you'd like me to analyze a specific coin or currency pair, be sure to comment so that I can allocate the next analysis for you!
⚠️ Also, please remember that I'm just an analyst, and this isn't financial advice. We're here to stay in the market and maximize profits by adhering to risk and capital management principles.
