Hello everyone. I tried to put out regular market updates in the past, but I failed to do so for different reasons. This time, my idea is to gather the best tweets, articles, charts, etc., and add some brief comments. I will post these out regularly as long as I have decent material.
1. Sentiment is still very bearish, which means more upside is still possible. twitter.com/charlieb.../1555281823344762881
2. Soft landing team seems to be doing well so far... Until it eventually won't be doing so. I believe a scenario like 1989 is possible for markets, though I am slightly less optimistic than Jared. www.bloomberg.com/op...-to-look-more-likely twitter.com/FedGuy12.../1555534384584953857
3. Valuations can get out of hand as multiple market forces drive stocks. Stocks could trade higher and higher despite bad earnings. twitter.com/JeremyDS.../1555195687314259969
twitter.com/JeremyDS.../1555195688358658058
4. The US has low unemployment, but its labor market is nowhere near as strong as it was before Covid or before the 2008 GFC twitter.com/charlieb.../1555539757408591873 twitter.com/charlieb.../1555534923422994432
5. Jobs are a lagging indicator; however, as the Fed is working with lagging data, they could hike more than they should. Good news now = bad news later; therefore, the market suffers now on good news, as it 'sees' the future. twitter.com/Jkylebas.../1555534977781174275 twitter.com/lisaabra.../1555531996985806848 twitter.com/profplum.../1555520254939320321
6. The yield curve inverting doesn't mean we will have a crash. A recession is guaranteed at this point, but remember that the recession comes many months after the inversion. twitter.com/lisaabra.../1555532966008442881
7. So far, this is a worse situation than 2012, 2015, and 2018; however it is nowhere near as bad as 2008 or 2020. Could it get that bad? I doubt it for now. Of course, with new data, I am ready to change my mind if I have to. twitter.com/jnordvig.../1555518172429955077
8. Some interesting comments by Jared Dillian with whom I agree: twitter.com/dailydir.../1555214197549666305 twitter.com/dailydir.../1555536716219441152
9. My main worry is what happens between the US and China in the next few months, especially in October, as I think it would be tough to avoid an invasion. Heightened tensions alone can create a lot of problems... twitter.com/disclose.../1555500308092096512
10. The Turkish Lira is heading yet for another collapse. No idea what could stop the Turkish economy from falling off a cliff in the next few years. www.zerohedge.com/ma...nk-sends-gold-london
1. Sentiment is still very bearish, which means more upside is still possible. twitter.com/charlieb.../1555281823344762881
2. Soft landing team seems to be doing well so far... Until it eventually won't be doing so. I believe a scenario like 1989 is possible for markets, though I am slightly less optimistic than Jared. www.bloomberg.com/op...-to-look-more-likely twitter.com/FedGuy12.../1555534384584953857
3. Valuations can get out of hand as multiple market forces drive stocks. Stocks could trade higher and higher despite bad earnings. twitter.com/JeremyDS.../1555195687314259969
twitter.com/JeremyDS.../1555195688358658058
4. The US has low unemployment, but its labor market is nowhere near as strong as it was before Covid or before the 2008 GFC twitter.com/charlieb.../1555539757408591873 twitter.com/charlieb.../1555534923422994432
5. Jobs are a lagging indicator; however, as the Fed is working with lagging data, they could hike more than they should. Good news now = bad news later; therefore, the market suffers now on good news, as it 'sees' the future. twitter.com/Jkylebas.../1555534977781174275 twitter.com/lisaabra.../1555531996985806848 twitter.com/profplum.../1555520254939320321
6. The yield curve inverting doesn't mean we will have a crash. A recession is guaranteed at this point, but remember that the recession comes many months after the inversion. twitter.com/lisaabra.../1555532966008442881
7. So far, this is a worse situation than 2012, 2015, and 2018; however it is nowhere near as bad as 2008 or 2020. Could it get that bad? I doubt it for now. Of course, with new data, I am ready to change my mind if I have to. twitter.com/jnordvig.../1555518172429955077
8. Some interesting comments by Jared Dillian with whom I agree: twitter.com/dailydir.../1555214197549666305 twitter.com/dailydir.../1555536716219441152
9. My main worry is what happens between the US and China in the next few months, especially in October, as I think it would be tough to avoid an invasion. Heightened tensions alone can create a lot of problems... twitter.com/disclose.../1555500308092096512
10. The Turkish Lira is heading yet for another collapse. No idea what could stop the Turkish economy from falling off a cliff in the next few years. www.zerohedge.com/ma...nk-sends-gold-london
