EURUSD bears attack six-month-old support ahead of Fed inflation

3月29日

EURUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in five weeks, down for the fourth consecutive day, as market players await the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for February. In doing so, the Euro pair pokes the key support line stretched from early October 2023 while extending its fall from a convergence of the 200-day and the 50-day SMAs. That said, the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s failure to extend the week-start rebound beyond the key SMA joint keep the sellers hopeful. Also adding strength to the downside bias is a looming death-cross on the daily chart, a condition where the 50-SMA crosses the 200-SMA from above. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) line is sliding towards the oversold territory, which in turn suggests limited downside room for the quote. As a result, an area comprising the 1.0700 round figure and the previous monthly low of near 1.0695 will test the bears. Following that, a downward-slopping support line from December, close to 1.0675 at the latest, will act as the final defense of the buyers.

Meanwhile, the 1.0800 round figure guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the aforementioned SMA confluence, near 1.0835-40 by the press time. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 1.0840, the 1.0900 threshold and a three-month-long descending resistance line surrounding 1.0940 will be crucial to watch before welcoming the Euro buyers. In a case where the bulls keep the reins past 1.0940, the monthly high of 1.0981 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet will act as the additional upside filters before giving control to the bulls.

Overall, the EURUSD pair is likely to witness further downside ahead of the key US data. However, the Good Friday holiday will restrict the market’s reaction to the statistics.