Gold is on crossroads regarding Short-term / FOMC on main stage
Gold's general commentary: Excellent numbers on yesterday's session PPI (Producer Price Index), showcasing that Inflation is way far from transitory, so current development may force Fed to tapper sooner than most Investors expected, most likely Fed will start rate hike on the next meeting planned on May #16. Current idle Buying pressure demonstrates that Investors are less interested in Gold as hedge asset to Inflation, or basic flee to safety (as I provided decent explanation why Gold is unprofitable Long-term investment), as they use Gold as an safe-haven asset only in catastrophic events such as conflict escalations (current one with Russia / Ukraine involved, many similarities with U.S. - Iran missile conflict).
Fundamental analysis: Regarding the Fundamental side, Bond Yields invalidated it's strongest Resistance zone (W shaped recovery pattern on (#1W) Weekly chart) and will most likely be heavily affected by Fed's increase of Bond-Buying pace. Currently DX (few percents down) is making less or no impact on Gold so it will be placed on #2 spot on my main correlating assets list (as correlating asset can change on Intra-day bas). One of the charts that got my attention, is that Gold renewed it's correlation more with Usd-Jpy pair and Bond Yields. Regarding current session, much expected correction of #7-consecutive session gains was strongly priced as the market already digested crisis escalation news and had sharp #35 point decline on the aftermatj, so I will wait for area to be engulfed and only then make my move. I will assume no Buying orders unless #1,866.80 breaks. #1,843.80 Support cluster protects immediate #1,821.80 extension.
Technical analysis: Despite the aggressive DX Sell-off throughout yesterday's U.S. session, Gold’s Daily chart candle managed to close in gains (above #1,843.80 - #1,848.80 Support cluster) and today's candle is capitalizing on that (# +0.24% so far). Attention is needed as despite the rise on U.S. equities and DX being down only by (# -0.19%), Gold is on a disproportional rise. Assuming that Bond Yields still didn’t found their Medium-term Resistance and FOMC conference in general may be boosting Gold, can deliver new Bullish outlook - Gold should test #1,866.80 again and probable #1,882.80 extension. Late week fractal should deliver what I am waiting for and optimal Selling opportunity lies at Higher High's peak where I am expecting #50 + points aggressive takedown. I will not revise my Monthly Target and by my estimation - no strategy shift so far as I easily monitor Gold from Technical standpoint (#1,800.80 psychological barrier on the cards regarding Medium-term and once Fundamental dust settles). Technical configuration may be providing me with decent Selling opportunity since Daily chart’s Resistance zone is near and every time Price-action is rejected from that zone, Gold engaged the serious decline. It all comes down of course to Bond Yields as a catalyst and FOMC statement within today's session.
My position: As current area is too dangerous to commit to any kind of order, I cannot rule out surprises on FOMC statement which can pressure Gold heavily. I will carefully listen to the conference and will Sell if #1,866.80 breaks (towards #1,882.80 extension), while I will be ready to Sell if #1,843.80 breaks (calling for #1,832.80 extension.
Fundamental analysis: Regarding the Fundamental side, Bond Yields invalidated it's strongest Resistance zone (W shaped recovery pattern on (#1W) Weekly chart) and will most likely be heavily affected by Fed's increase of Bond-Buying pace. Currently DX (few percents down) is making less or no impact on Gold so it will be placed on #2 spot on my main correlating assets list (as correlating asset can change on Intra-day bas). One of the charts that got my attention, is that Gold renewed it's correlation more with Usd-Jpy pair and Bond Yields. Regarding current session, much expected correction of #7-consecutive session gains was strongly priced as the market already digested crisis escalation news and had sharp #35 point decline on the aftermatj, so I will wait for area to be engulfed and only then make my move. I will assume no Buying orders unless #1,866.80 breaks. #1,843.80 Support cluster protects immediate #1,821.80 extension.
Technical analysis: Despite the aggressive DX Sell-off throughout yesterday's U.S. session, Gold’s Daily chart candle managed to close in gains (above #1,843.80 - #1,848.80 Support cluster) and today's candle is capitalizing on that (# +0.24% so far). Attention is needed as despite the rise on U.S. equities and DX being down only by (# -0.19%), Gold is on a disproportional rise. Assuming that Bond Yields still didn’t found their Medium-term Resistance and FOMC conference in general may be boosting Gold, can deliver new Bullish outlook - Gold should test #1,866.80 again and probable #1,882.80 extension. Late week fractal should deliver what I am waiting for and optimal Selling opportunity lies at Higher High's peak where I am expecting #50 + points aggressive takedown. I will not revise my Monthly Target and by my estimation - no strategy shift so far as I easily monitor Gold from Technical standpoint (#1,800.80 psychological barrier on the cards regarding Medium-term and once Fundamental dust settles). Technical configuration may be providing me with decent Selling opportunity since Daily chart’s Resistance zone is near and every time Price-action is rejected from that zone, Gold engaged the serious decline. It all comes down of course to Bond Yields as a catalyst and FOMC statement within today's session.
My position: As current area is too dangerous to commit to any kind of order, I cannot rule out surprises on FOMC statement which can pressure Gold heavily. I will carefully listen to the conference and will Sell if #1,866.80 breaks (towards #1,882.80 extension), while I will be ready to Sell if #1,843.80 breaks (calling for #1,832.80 extension.
コメント:
I will carefully listen to the conference and will #Buy if #1,866.80 breaks (towards #1,882.80 extension), while I will be ready to Sell if #1,843.80 breaks (calling for #1,832.80 extension.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
