Will S&P drop to 2235?

Hi Tradingview!

Welcome to my first published idea! I have used different methods of TA to get to a 2235 target of the S&P 500:

* Head and Shoulders pattern with a skewed neckline around current levels, target 2235.
* Dow theory: 16% drop leads to 24% drop 80% of the time. Which is 2235.
* 5th upward pointing wedge in a row. The previous 4 broke to the downside. I do not see this one breaking all the way to 2235, but it does point to short term downside.
* A downward pitchfork channel could be established; the Dec 24th drop nicely respected the -1 line. We are now at the +1 line which could prove resistance.
* When looking historically, 2235 was significant as support on Dec 30th 2016.

I am a trading amateur using Tradingview to learn. I see a lot of people get flamed and burned for posting an idea; I do not mind if you do, that seems the way of the internet nowadays. But if you disagree I'd like to learn why to improve my TA, cause this is just an idea and definitely not financial advice.

Have a great weekend!

コメント:

Although I can see the S&P rising a bit more, many things are coming together as resistance. Besides the mentioned order block, neckline, and .618 ratio now this: a few hours ago the A and C waves of this upwards correction from the Xmax low were exactly at a 1 to 1 fibonacci relationship, from which it got rejected. It coincided with the 50EMA as well. And now the Brexit vote is going on, which will still influence markets across the pond.

I would not be surpised to see the S&P fall from here with the Brexit deal rejection. Or I might be totally wrong.