Starting to look like we have a very playable wedge forming on the daily. The falling trend lines up with the 61.8% retracement on options expiration day (4/20). We may also consolidate in this narrowing range, potentially setting the stage for a major rally or major selloff in the summer. Sell in May?
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This is playing out almost perfectly. We need to break this downtrend to verify bulls' conviction. I still don't think we've seen the true washout, as longer time frame charts look fairly damaged, so chop may be more likely than new highs. Even as we rally, its important to remember that this market is now in "shoot first, ask questions later" mode. Don't get too complacent and lose focus!