You don't have to be bearish to be frustrated with this market.
In this low volume, seemingly automated market it's incredibly hard to do any decent trading, specifically on the indexes unless you literally just long on monday and close on Friday. Which is 100% counter intuitive to actively trading in general. It shouldn't be easy. And it sure as hell shouldn't be predictable. You end of having to chase prices or getting bad entries because there's no such thing as a good entry, even if you're a perma bull. The only decent entries are bearish entries because things are so ridiculously overextended and one sided in the market right now.
I thought about naming today's post "AAPL 500", just because there's almost no point in trading anything else. The entire market is 5 names. FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, and MSFT are more than 25% of the S&P 500. And, Apple closed above the Two Trillion Dollar market cap today. Think about that. AAPL is now worth more than the entire GDP of Brazil, and 700 million more they'll overtake Italy.
Alright, so today, after being down almost 40 points in the overnight session we only gapped down by about 18-20 points and on SPY that opened us outside and below the trendline for this entire leg, that's a dangerous open for the bulls, but on low volume relative to a normal open we traded to it, and then through it and it took us a while but in unison (mainly QQQ) one by one we started filling the same day gaps on the indexes with IWM being the last to fill. This was mainly on the backs of AAPL, again. But there were points when IWM was participating as well. Throughout the first part of the day i thought this way just going to be an oversold bounce but who would i thought i'd still be naive after all these years right? Tech took the steering wheel and white willed us upward the rest of the day first trading us almost right to the .5, retrace to the .382, trade almost to the .682, retrace back below the .5, trade through the .618 and ended the day with not one, but two stop hunts/short squeezes. That .786 area most likely is an area where a lot of people got in a short trade after confirming the move. and set their stops right above the highers from that small counter trend. Didn't seem to work because they ended up getting rejected twice, with the SPX actually gapping down due to the actor who was perpetratin dumping the bags they were using to get us there in 10-15 sec sales. It's expensive being a bear. It's also disheartening. This is the moral raping of the bear psyche with these moves. This is what is setting the table for these low volume melt ups. Literally salt the earth of any sellers any time there are any and eventually you have the playground all to yourself. Didn't break the .786 when the bears successfully defended the breakdown candle high, but also didn't truly get rejected either. Inbetween the .786 and .618.
In this low volume, seemingly automated market it's incredibly hard to do any decent trading, specifically on the indexes unless you literally just long on monday and close on Friday. Which is 100% counter intuitive to actively trading in general. It shouldn't be easy. And it sure as hell shouldn't be predictable. You end of having to chase prices or getting bad entries because there's no such thing as a good entry, even if you're a perma bull. The only decent entries are bearish entries because things are so ridiculously overextended and one sided in the market right now.
I thought about naming today's post "AAPL 500", just because there's almost no point in trading anything else. The entire market is 5 names. FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, and MSFT are more than 25% of the S&P 500. And, Apple closed above the Two Trillion Dollar market cap today. Think about that. AAPL is now worth more than the entire GDP of Brazil, and 700 million more they'll overtake Italy.
Alright, so today, after being down almost 40 points in the overnight session we only gapped down by about 18-20 points and on SPY that opened us outside and below the trendline for this entire leg, that's a dangerous open for the bulls, but on low volume relative to a normal open we traded to it, and then through it and it took us a while but in unison (mainly QQQ) one by one we started filling the same day gaps on the indexes with IWM being the last to fill. This was mainly on the backs of AAPL, again. But there were points when IWM was participating as well. Throughout the first part of the day i thought this way just going to be an oversold bounce but who would i thought i'd still be naive after all these years right? Tech took the steering wheel and white willed us upward the rest of the day first trading us almost right to the .5, retrace to the .382, trade almost to the .682, retrace back below the .5, trade through the .618 and ended the day with not one, but two stop hunts/short squeezes. That .786 area most likely is an area where a lot of people got in a short trade after confirming the move. and set their stops right above the highers from that small counter trend. Didn't seem to work because they ended up getting rejected twice, with the SPX actually gapping down due to the actor who was perpetratin dumping the bags they were using to get us there in 10-15 sec sales. It's expensive being a bear. It's also disheartening. This is the moral raping of the bear psyche with these moves. This is what is setting the table for these low volume melt ups. Literally salt the earth of any sellers any time there are any and eventually you have the playground all to yourself. Didn't break the .786 when the bears successfully defended the breakdown candle high, but also didn't truly get rejected either. Inbetween the .786 and .618.
