A New Bullish Projection For Cryptos ($500-700B Possible)
アップデート済
Near the beginning of 2019, I made a projection showing that the total valuation of the cryptocurrency market could reach $300 Billion. The market then outperformed my expectations, reaching a high of around 360B in June before dropping. I believe that we've finally seen the extent of the correction now. It's been brutal, to say the least. 
I think there's a decent chance that some cryptocurrencies start to get closer to their all-time high levels, sooner rather than later. If history repeats, Bitcoin may have to reach its ATH before any other cryptos do the same, but dominance is still in a rising wedge that could break down at any moment. Hard to say. All I can see here, is that the crypto market has gotten very close to the 200 Week Moving Average and has found some strong. You can also see how important these horizontal levels (marked in red) are historically, when you look at the tail end of the previous bull cycle. As we speak, several established alts are back above broken supports from the last couple of months ($0.05 XLM , $0.22 XRP, and $142 ETH). This is a strong signal.
On another note, this is arguably the first true bear market for the broader crypto market. This is the first bear market where we have the TOTAL and TOTAL2 charts, which are essentially indexes. This is extremely helpful for traders and potential investors. I think holding the 200w MA here is extremely important for that reason.
At the bottom of this chart, you can see that I've drawn a speculative movement for the Ultimate Oscillator. I actually did this a while ago, so this is really a follow-up post. You can see that the UO has already broken out, as I anticipated.
A break above the 56 level has predicted a larger run in the past. Circled in yellow, note that the weekly UO broke out above 56 again in October 2015, prior to the first higher high of the bear market. This is why I think we could be primed for some serious upside here. Maybe not all time high quite yet, but close. I don't necessarily think the market will make new highs this year. Whatever happens, my goal is to try to time the next market peak, and make a swing trade that can give me some extra capital moving forward. We'll see what happens!
As for what could happen after the next peak, I think crypto can follow sort of what happened to Amazon in its early days - a slow, but steady rise until it goes parabolic based on true adoption. This is totally speculative:
This is not financial advice. This is for my personal records, speculation, and education.
-Victor Cobra
I think there's a decent chance that some cryptocurrencies start to get closer to their all-time high levels, sooner rather than later. If history repeats, Bitcoin may have to reach its ATH before any other cryptos do the same, but dominance is still in a rising wedge that could break down at any moment. Hard to say. All I can see here, is that the crypto market has gotten very close to the 200 Week Moving Average and has found some strong. You can also see how important these horizontal levels (marked in red) are historically, when you look at the tail end of the previous bull cycle. As we speak, several established alts are back above broken supports from the last couple of months ($0.05 XLM , $0.22 XRP, and $142 ETH). This is a strong signal.
On another note, this is arguably the first true bear market for the broader crypto market. This is the first bear market where we have the TOTAL and TOTAL2 charts, which are essentially indexes. This is extremely helpful for traders and potential investors. I think holding the 200w MA here is extremely important for that reason.
At the bottom of this chart, you can see that I've drawn a speculative movement for the Ultimate Oscillator. I actually did this a while ago, so this is really a follow-up post. You can see that the UO has already broken out, as I anticipated.
A break above the 56 level has predicted a larger run in the past. Circled in yellow, note that the weekly UO broke out above 56 again in October 2015, prior to the first higher high of the bear market. This is why I think we could be primed for some serious upside here. Maybe not all time high quite yet, but close. I don't necessarily think the market will make new highs this year. Whatever happens, my goal is to try to time the next market peak, and make a swing trade that can give me some extra capital moving forward. We'll see what happens!
As for what could happen after the next peak, I think crypto can follow sort of what happened to Amazon in its early days - a slow, but steady rise until it goes parabolic based on true adoption. This is totally speculative:
This is not financial advice. This is for my personal records, speculation, and education.
-Victor Cobra
ノート
Unfortunately, the altcoin market still looks weak, and Bitcoin got rejected even before it got to the downtrend resistance. This tells me that actually what could be happening is money continuing to exit crypto altogether, through alts and USDT pairings. This is an alternate view, but there is no reason to be 100% certain of the long term bullish projection until downtrends are cleared and we make a higher high. Dominance continuing to increase is NOT good for crypto. New investors don't get excited by Bitcoin. They're excited by the market as a whole, and promising blockchain applications within it. Volume shows us that people have sold a lot of Bitcoin between April 2019 and now. Even more crypto has been sold during this timeframe than was sold at the peak of the 2017 bubble. You can only really see this using on-balance volume on the MONTHLY chart. For these reasons, it's important to remain cautious and not risk a large amount on cryptocurrencies, as they are extremely speculative. Crypto will need to continue holding the 50 MA on the monthly, or things could get very ugly for the space.
ノート
All we can do is be patient and wait to see what the future unfolds. My projection still stands if we can break our downtrend, and particularly if the rest of the crypto space starts to look healthy.ノート
Well well well. It looks like we've finally broken the downtrend. I expect the $230 Billion area to be the toughest resistance. We're butting up against it right now, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction here. Beyond 230, the next resistance isn't until $270 Billion, or the previously broken long term uptrend (light blue). ノート
We really need a weekly close above the 100w MA (green). There's a lot of time left, so we'll see what happens.
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