USDCHF Channel Down 1DMA50 rejection but can transition sideways

The USDCHF pair has been trading within a perfect Channel Down pattern since the November 30 2022 High. On Monday we had a strong rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and that should start the next bearish leg towards the Channel's Lower Low. This time however, if the 0.90625 February 02 Low doesn't break, we may see the pair turn sideways as the blue range shown on the chart (0.9090 - 0.93700) has been a high volatility region for more than 5 months (October 2021 - mid March 2022). Of course in order for that to materialize, we need a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50, which hasn't been done since November 07 2022.

Until then, every Lower High rejection is a sell opportunity towards 0.90200 (Support 1) and if broken then 0.89260 (Support 2). Notice how the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is comfortably located at the top of the range. Only a 1D candle close above it can turn the pair bullish towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).

An indicator that supports this sideways transition to the range is the 1D RSI which in contrast to the price's Channel Down, it has been within a Channel Up since November 11, hence a Bullish Divergence.


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