Will the revealed labor data continue to support USDJPY?
Macro theme:
- The latest Sep NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings have all surpassed market expectations. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the 32% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November has been eliminated, shifting the odds toward a likely rate freeze instead.
- Japan's newly appointed economic minister expressed support for further interest rate hikes as long as they do not destabilize the economy or markets, signalling confidence in the BoJ's approach.
- The yen's outlook remains uncertain, influenced by the robust US labor market and ambiguity surrounding the BoJ's potential rate hikes.
Technical theme:
- USDJPY quickly recovered from the previous downtrend and closed above both EMAs, indicating a solid upward momentum.
- If USDJPY extends its gain to close above 149.25, USDJPY may retest the resistance around 152.00.
- On the contrary, a failure to close above 149.25 may prompt a temporary correction within 147.30-149.25 until an apparent breakout occurs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- The latest Sep NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings have all surpassed market expectations. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the 32% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November has been eliminated, shifting the odds toward a likely rate freeze instead.
- Japan's newly appointed economic minister expressed support for further interest rate hikes as long as they do not destabilize the economy or markets, signalling confidence in the BoJ's approach.
- The yen's outlook remains uncertain, influenced by the robust US labor market and ambiguity surrounding the BoJ's potential rate hikes.
Technical theme:
- USDJPY quickly recovered from the previous downtrend and closed above both EMAs, indicating a solid upward momentum.
- If USDJPY extends its gain to close above 149.25, USDJPY may retest the resistance around 152.00.
- On the contrary, a failure to close above 149.25 may prompt a temporary correction within 147.30-149.25 until an apparent breakout occurs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
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