ロング

USD/JPY Towards 160 if the Fed doesn’t cut!

USD/JPY is currently trading near the 150.00 level, under pressure due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities and a pullback in the US Dollar. The pair is navigating a cautious environment, as mild risk aversion strengthens the safe-haven Japanese Yen. However, despite this pressure, the pair maintains its broader upward trend after breaking a key resistance level. Fundamentally, USD/JPY continues to find support from strong US retail sales data and a resilient labor market, along with rising US Treasury yields. This has led investors to reduce the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the November meeting, keeping the dollar supported and the pair on a bullish trajectory.

ノート

On Friday, USD/JPY closed by further testing the resistance/support level at 149.60. Next week, I expect a long position, supported by a strong dollar driven by macroeconomic data and a weak yen, with additional pressure from the Bank of Japan due to the uncertain economic situation.