uvxy headed for 1:10 revse split early feb. 2023
we are breaking out in spx daily, but are we at swing low in vix? contango is uvxy is matching what it nears as we head for high $4 range where it normally reverse splits 1:10. conveniently that puts us in the expected date range of early february. this VWAP strategy says we may be in for another long entry UVXY as we top out in es1! potentially around ftz 8, and above bands crossing bull by ftz 13.
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so when i look at uvxy short volume with adaptive cloud compared to vix it shows that were still in the downswing of volatility, and the upswing of spx technically
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by the way im not sure how i botched it but i got the timing noteably off... obviously we havent split either... i dont claim to have inside knowledge here. we will just have to wait and see. visit the proshares website for more info.
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if were not getting big shorts spx we wont see continued longs vix
heres the read on the leverage
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im not saying we cant still see higher prices uvxy but i felt i wasnt strongly wording how bearish it is... high $4s again.
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so... weve learned today that in a deflationary cycle after peak inflation to have too much deflation is worse than having not enough. hopefully that helps.
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good thing we erred on the side of caution 🧏♂️
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and yes, i understand that the rate is not the core level... im linguistically simplifying here
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heres the way im looking at front month vix futures
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heres a look at what spy might do
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shorting the 4hr to daily
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im expecting to be back up by march
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usually when uvxy gets slammed to the downside right into the close while overall intermediate term outlook on spx is bear and the price is near r/s level or split is overdue like it is now if futures slip a little overnight we should pop up into the morning:
interesting zones are $4.79 $4.82 $4.88 $4.94
