XAU/USD FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST
Gold prices finally breached the $2050 level after threatening since mid-December after US PCE deflator readings missed forecasts. The core metric (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) dropped to levels last seen in April 2021 and the first negative MoM print in over 3 years. Implied Fed funds futures below now prices in almost 160bps of cumulative rate cuts in 2024 with the first cut becoming more convincing in Q1. That being said, Durable goods orders and Michigan consumer sentiment have improved significantly and shows the resilience of the US economy in the current restrictive monetary policy environment. Jobless claims data continues to resist doves and will be closely monitored next week.
Gold prices finally breached the $2050 level after threatening since mid-December after US PCE deflator readings missed forecasts. The core metric (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) dropped to levels last seen in April 2021 and the first negative MoM print in over 3 years. Implied Fed funds futures below now prices in almost 160bps of cumulative rate cuts in 2024 with the first cut becoming more convincing in Q1. That being said, Durable goods orders and Michigan consumer sentiment have improved significantly and shows the resilience of the US economy in the current restrictive monetary policy environment. Jobless claims data continues to resist doves and will be closely monitored next week.