Conviction: 4/5
Long-term cup and handle since 2011, looks like ready for completion
However, in the short term, price is forming pennant.
Currently at support of pennant, could be good entry point.
To be more prudent, should probably wait until confirmation of breakout from top of pennant to enter.
Considerations
Long-term cup and handle since 2011, looks like ready for completion
However, in the short term, price is forming pennant.
Currently at support of pennant, could be good entry point.
To be more prudent, should probably wait until confirmation of breakout from top of pennant to enter.
Considerations
- Rising yield => rising real yield => historically bad for gold, but it has not really been following real-yield relationship since bull run of 2020.
- Recession risk (from falling PMI) should help gold outperform stocks, HOWEVER, in first move down, correlation usually goes to 1 (i.e. it will participate)
Breakout and possible retest yesterday!
Updated conviction: 5/5