MQP GOLD BASE CASE PART 6, 2021 TRADE OF THE SUMMER, DRAFT 1
DRAFT 2 (or 3) IS JUST SAME PATH W/ SPECIFICS, THERE WILL BE NO CHANGES TO THIS CURVE.
Notes:
1. Why no changes? I have reach the point of "curve confirmation" for this coming rally.
2. The absolute floor prior to May 12th is 1732.
3. Whether it gets hit (and since I don't think it will, IT PROBABLY WILL TAG 1734), next is week is A STRONG BUY FOR 4 MONTHS TO 4 YEARS.
If you've been following since late Feb, my refined forecasting engine had called the move to 1680 turn for turn. The search for the bottom was complicated, but I confirmed the bottom by May 12th. I now have enough info to call the move up. There will no changes to this curve I set today until July 7th. Meaning this trade is 18 weeks long, I am not forecasting a 30 pt move, I cam forecasting a 300 pt move:
a. we will hit the low this coming week (if we haven't already, current odds strongly favor one more stab lower)
b. we will hit those 4 circles which are 1830, 1750, 1995 and 2080
c. we should hit 1995 level right around JULY 6TH
d. we should hit 2080 level AUGUST 25TH to SEPTEMBER 5TH
Last year, at the point of curve confirmation, the engine was strong for 40 days. I believe I have refined this to 120 days, meaning this call is to match last year's high by 09/03/21.
THAT SAID, I WOULD RATHER BE LONG SILVER THAN GOLD DURING THIS PERIOD. WHY? SILVER SHOULD HIT 34 BY JULY 6TH. More in DRAFT 2.
Notes:
1. Why no changes? I have reach the point of "curve confirmation" for this coming rally.
2. The absolute floor prior to May 12th is 1732.
3. Whether it gets hit (and since I don't think it will, IT PROBABLY WILL TAG 1734), next is week is A STRONG BUY FOR 4 MONTHS TO 4 YEARS.
If you've been following since late Feb, my refined forecasting engine had called the move to 1680 turn for turn. The search for the bottom was complicated, but I confirmed the bottom by May 12th. I now have enough info to call the move up. There will no changes to this curve I set today until July 7th. Meaning this trade is 18 weeks long, I am not forecasting a 30 pt move, I cam forecasting a 300 pt move:
a. we will hit the low this coming week (if we haven't already, current odds strongly favor one more stab lower)
b. we will hit those 4 circles which are 1830, 1750, 1995 and 2080
c. we should hit 1995 level right around JULY 6TH
d. we should hit 2080 level AUGUST 25TH to SEPTEMBER 5TH
Last year, at the point of curve confirmation, the engine was strong for 40 days. I believe I have refined this to 120 days, meaning this call is to match last year's high by 09/03/21.
THAT SAID, I WOULD RATHER BE LONG SILVER THAN GOLD DURING THIS PERIOD. WHY? SILVER SHOULD HIT 34 BY JULY 6TH. More in DRAFT 2.
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vs DOWN TRENDS:
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vs SPECIFIC UPTRENDS
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Update:
No dates for the first 2 bubbles b/c they rely on short term curves that has been changing with too much vol. For ex: last week it said 1730s before 1830s, but now it says no more 1730s, straight to 1840s. BUT that does NOT preclude a revisit to 1730s AFTER 1840s.
SO?
I have enough to say 1830s AND THEN 1750s before the final move up. BUT cant say WHEN, just prior to 06/15.
No dates for the first 2 bubbles b/c they rely on short term curves that has been changing with too much vol. For ex: last week it said 1730s before 1830s, but now it says no more 1730s, straight to 1840s. BUT that does NOT preclude a revisit to 1730s AFTER 1840s.
SO?
I have enough to say 1830s AND THEN 1750s before the final move up. BUT cant say WHEN, just prior to 06/15.