I'm quite sure we printed the DCL today at 1278$. If this intermediate bull is still intact then I would give a chance to trade it based on EW...
It's a risky trade we might stop out immediately in the night or tomorrow, but if it works we might a have a few days to run and test back the previous high.
If we stop out I will publish immediately a short trade idea because then we are going down to test the triangle lower trendline.
Gold will be driven by the Yen and the dollar. Watch DXY , EurUsd and USDJPY.
So this is going to be the long side of the gold coin.
We bounced off today from the 50% retracement of the summer rally. Tagging 1278$ was the the tag of the 100 EMA also...
This was the 2nd DCL of this intermediate cycle. ( The first DCL was at wave 2 - it was a hardly recognizable DCL tricked me out also with Trump's email investigation and Kim's rocket story. We didn't have the characteristic of the DCL...)
Today's bounce out of the 50% retracement might be quite similar to this years' second DCL bounce (highlighted by blue arrow)
If we follow EW normally the 5th wave should be the same length as the 1st wave. So in a normal situation we could easily test back the previous high and break marginally higher again to frustrate one more time the breakout bulls before the year end ICL.
Our chances for a big bounce are low though. I still think the dollar is printing a rally out of the intermediate low . If it bounces hard gold might drop more after a small bounce. But as of today it seems the dollar will have a few days of rest. Gold might use this opportunity for a rally out of the DCL but it might not be longer than 4-5 days.
Divergence in RSI and TSI is supporting this idea.
I will try to hold this position for 4-8 days and see what's happening. Important how the daily candles will look like i the next 3-4 days. With small dojis we are going to nowhere and a breakdown is coming.
NEW LONG ENTRY AT 1286$.
STOP below 1278$.
It's a risky trade we might stop out immediately in the night or tomorrow, but if it works we might a have a few days to run and test back the previous high.
If we stop out I will publish immediately a short trade idea because then we are going down to test the triangle lower trendline.
Gold will be driven by the Yen and the dollar. Watch DXY , EurUsd and USDJPY.
So this is going to be the long side of the gold coin.
We bounced off today from the 50% retracement of the summer rally. Tagging 1278$ was the the tag of the 100 EMA also...
This was the 2nd DCL of this intermediate cycle. ( The first DCL was at wave 2 - it was a hardly recognizable DCL tricked me out also with Trump's email investigation and Kim's rocket story. We didn't have the characteristic of the DCL...)
Today's bounce out of the 50% retracement might be quite similar to this years' second DCL bounce (highlighted by blue arrow)
If we follow EW normally the 5th wave should be the same length as the 1st wave. So in a normal situation we could easily test back the previous high and break marginally higher again to frustrate one more time the breakout bulls before the year end ICL.
Our chances for a big bounce are low though. I still think the dollar is printing a rally out of the intermediate low . If it bounces hard gold might drop more after a small bounce. But as of today it seems the dollar will have a few days of rest. Gold might use this opportunity for a rally out of the DCL but it might not be longer than 4-5 days.
Divergence in RSI and TSI is supporting this idea.
I will try to hold this position for 4-8 days and see what's happening. Important how the daily candles will look like i the next 3-4 days. With small dojis we are going to nowhere and a breakdown is coming.
NEW LONG ENTRY AT 1286$.
STOP below 1278$.
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Will update on the daily chart soon.
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We are printing a reversal bullish pinbar on the daily chart
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Also bouncing from the FIBO 61,8% level
I'm entering at 1278$ - at the stop break even - for a LONGposition.