THE LAST PRS IDEA, UPDATE 4. 2485-2535 11/01-11/10.

WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE 9/04? NOT MUCH.

Notes:

Blue route is strong favorite, after everything has been considered. This means sideways to up and breaking 2075 by 10/07, topping 2500 zone in early November. This would be followed by roughly 20% correction that would take 60 days to complete in an EXTREMELY heart-breaking manner.

The black route is the most bullish outcome that while theoretically possible, probably won't happen. If we see 2100 by 10/02, this would be a coin flip.

I do not see a legit bearish outcome without 2450 getting hit. In the (what I consider to be) unlikely scenario that an 18xx number gets tagged first week of October, then this implies a 2700 target in late January or early February for dark red route. However the blue route is a massive favorite. Regressionally-speaking, black route would be more likely to happen than orange, red, or dark red routes. The green route is the most annoying way to 2500. While it's a massive dog vs other bullish outcomes, it's still likelier than a visit to 1850. Not worth discussing at this time.

コメント:

FOR CONTEXT, PLEASE READ PREVIOUS POSTS:

UPDATE 3>>
www.tradingview.com/...E-3-BEARISH-IS-2425/

UPDATE 2>>

UPDATE 1>>
www.tradingview.com/...T-PRS-IDEA-UPDATE-1/

ORIGINAL IDEA

BEARISH TO BULLISH

コメント:

Some food for thought? This is Varied-Ratio Regression forecasting I've finished this last month. Here is an example of VRR detailing prior to forecasting:

1 of 6:

コメント:

2 of 6:

コメント:

3 of 6:

4 of 6:

コメント:

コメント:

Above chart was 5 of 6.

Here's 6 of 6:

コメント:

So what does that mean, the 6 charts?? It means that which ever way you cut this, the move after 9/25 is very likely to be massively up. And also very likely to top by 11/11. How high?? My math says 2510. This new VRR forecasting is a MASSIVE MASSIVE improvement over 6-angles of PIRL previously presented in June/July to forecast the the massive move to 2000s.

How so? It provides 3X the evidence and will make 1/3 of the mistakes of previous forecasts. It is also true that it will attempt less specific forecasts than before with exception of specific situations that happen but 6-7 times a year per instrument.

コメント:

Basically, I have this rough draft of next 5 months in mind:

コメント:

Note: chart above to reference outline only. Not meant to contrast regression angles or ratios.

コメント:

Until next week:

What I've learned with VRR is WHEN it's right to make derivative chart and when it's not. Basically there are times when prices swing in a zone constantly w/o really affecting longer regressions. In those situations, it's a complete waste of time to forecast zig zags. If the trend holds for those 6 charts to 9/23-ish, it would be worth the time for a 6-week derivative map. This makes it so much more worth the time to make even more valuable to have.