Australian inflation data released Tuesday evening, might make the AUD/USD the most interesting pair to watch this week. This is because inflation will likely come in higher than 4.0% still.
Less than 24 hours later, we then have the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, which will be one of the most watched forex events of the month.
The AUD/USD has stayed within a narrow range recently, forming an ascending channel that looks like a bearish flag pattern. For stability, it might want to hold above 0.6600. If it fails, the pair could possibly retest the 2024 low at 0.6524, in line with the 100-day SMA.
Second opportunity: EUR/USD
Why is the EUR/USD a pair to watch this week? It all comes down to the disagreement circulating in the market about where EU inflation is going to fall this week on Thursday.
Some market participants forecast it is falling to 2.2% from the current 2.9%, while others are pegging it to actually increase to 3.1%.
These differing opinions open up a few different targets on the charts.
The near-term picture is possibly bearish with the EUR/USD developing below all its moving averages and posting a third consecutive lower low and lower high. Although the selling pressure momentum might be waning.